{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31cb6314-eaa1-4de2-a8f8-00fe5ef0fba1", "symbol": "EXLS", "name": "ExlService Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.652, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.737, "architecture_energy": 38.628, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.014, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.39, "rotation_up": 64.47, "upward_expansion": 34.71, "deceleration": 44.71, "rotation_down": 14.12, "downward_expansion": 21.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.786667, 29.832545, 29.417095, 29.765376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.89, "trend_reference": 31.041667, "distance_from_trend": 0.123973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.591474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.314525, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100631, "excess_performance": -0.086823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123973, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115504, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.19852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100631, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.179852, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13372458, "relative_activity": 1.085579, "balance": 2.179852, "dry_up": 1.108837, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081575, "annualized_volatility": 0.47243, "from_high_reference": -0.225957, "from_low_reference": 0.404024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.041667, "fair_value_reference": 36.591474, "structural_low": 24.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.004261, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.034544, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.087719, "worst_return": -0.104375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011224, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.091472, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.122587, "worst_return": -0.051716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053019, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.095508, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115306, "worst_return": -0.039781, "sufficient": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.16, "volume": 11457731, "typical_volume": 11849032.65, "trend": 32.065, "fair_value": 36.512026, "relative_strength": -30.97805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.470575, "energy": 41.793205, "activity_lines": [ 27.266, 27.591091, 28.589619, 29.663462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.67, "volume": 8775429, "typical_volume": 11802481.95, "trend": 31.544, "fair_value": 36.506538, "relative_strength": -30.267164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.251821, "energy": 32.583243, "activity_lines": [ 27.528667, 27.550364, 28.428952, 29.379914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.93, "volume": 21030209, "typical_volume": 12223814.5, "trend": 31.301333, "fair_value": 36.546731, "relative_strength": -14.187676, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.613956, "energy": 11.476662, "activity_lines": [ 29.762, 28.644364, 28.887524, 29.533849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.89, "volume": 13372458, "typical_volume": 12318271.4, "trend": 31.041667, "fair_value": 36.591474, "relative_strength": -15.314525, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.73651, "energy": 38.62778, "activity_lines": [ 31.786667, 29.832545, 29.417095, 29.765376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }