{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31cea9ac-c0c8-4485-8254-34ad1c199d88", "symbol": "VLUE", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.888, "architecture_energy": 58.033, "architecture_maturity": 73.509, "architecture_confidence": 59.572, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.05, "rotation_up": 42.97, "upward_expansion": 67.83, "deceleration": 71.17, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3367.8, 3404.219358, 3188.251787, 3021.253761 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3415.0, "trend_reference": 2830.822819, "distance_from_trend": 0.206363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2121.141706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.609982, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.135707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.352076, "excess_performance": 0.406742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.206363, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.609982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.335958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.301357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.352076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.413223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 5.847953, "balance": 0.413223, "dry_up": 5.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032987, "annualized_volatility": 0.462785, "from_high_reference": -0.024798, "from_low_reference": 0.682543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2830.822819, "fair_value_reference": 2121.141706, "structural_low": 2525.746338, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007846, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.015998, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.380346, "worst_return": -0.03658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044808, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000685, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.38171, "worst_return": -0.098759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012543, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185624, "worst_return": -0.110809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.144702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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8.55, "trend": 2830.822819, "fair_value": 2121.141706, "relative_strength": 30.135707, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.887563, "energy": 58.032854, "activity_lines": [ 3367.8, 3404.219358, 3188.251787, 3021.253761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }