{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31cfdbe4-fd29-4021-b23f-7d7b12874880", "symbol": "2836", "name": "Bank of Kaohsiung Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.292, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.029, "architecture_energy": 23.973, "architecture_maturity": 23.437, "architecture_confidence": 41.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.48, "rotation_up": 41.45, "upward_expansion": 63.36, "deceleration": 62.93, "rotation_down": 23.02, "downward_expansion": 15.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.975399, 12.003509, 11.852392, 11.807612 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.8, "trend_reference": 11.771158, "distance_from_trend": 0.00245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.887772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083785, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.477001, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011357, "excess_performance": -0.430015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00245, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02437, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.530394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6926400, "relative_activity": 0.514714, "balance": 1.530394, "dry_up": 1.630243, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031625, "annualized_volatility": 0.130911, "from_high_reference": -0.05866, "from_low_reference": 0.059517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.771158, "fair_value_reference": 10.887772, "structural_low": 11.137152, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001739, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.012337, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.247863, "worst_return": -0.117057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007435, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.048743, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.195556, "worst_return": -0.070632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020492, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.170977, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.258787, "worst_return": -0.078067, "sufficient": 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-24.282257, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.426501, "energy": 52.42908, "activity_lines": [ 12.021053, 11.876123, 11.73522, 11.737376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.390684, "volume": 23807428, "typical_volume": 11337318.95, "trend": 11.760704, "fair_value": 10.85534, "relative_strength": -23.753132, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.997027, "energy": 76.497734, "activity_lines": [ 12.159263, 11.99534, 11.800652, 11.778642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 45351381, "typical_volume": 13109859.35, "trend": 11.768693, "fair_value": 10.868139, "relative_strength": -23.813763, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.558025, "energy": 59.181355, "activity_lines": [ 12.168436, 12.043296, 11.836792, 11.800532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.85, "volume": 11666144, "typical_volume": 13379608.6, "trend": 11.771562, "fair_value": 10.878035, "relative_strength": -26.432746, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.531615, "energy": 38.410998, "activity_lines": [ 12.075085, 12.033552, 11.847293, 11.805777 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.8, "volume": 6926400, "typical_volume": 13456793.6, "trend": 11.771158, "fair_value": 10.887772, "relative_strength": -28.477001, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.028529, "energy": 23.97323, "activity_lines": [ 11.975399, 12.003509, 11.852392, 11.807612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }