{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31d131ea-10d1-4237-b03e-46930cb444b8", "symbol": "603848", "name": "Guangdong Hotata Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.775, "architecture_energy": 70.227, "architecture_maturity": 72.455, "architecture_confidence": 88.064, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 11.97, "upward_expansion": 15.04, "deceleration": 39.85, "rotation_down": 70.54, "downward_expansion": 88.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.007333, 13.446211, 14.099235, 14.694908 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.27, "trend_reference": 15.71701, "distance_from_trend": -0.155692, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.587922, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.943319, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315979, "excess_performance": -0.272776, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1487, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24569, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8405850, "relative_activity": 0.881334, "balance": 0.24569, "dry_up": 1.137553, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081499, "annualized_volatility": 0.300089, "from_high_reference": -0.613007, "from_low_reference": 0.089491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.71701, "fair_value_reference": 15.587922, "structural_low": 12.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.007315, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.007369, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.207914, "worst_return": -0.134911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079762, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.052612, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.499574, "worst_return": -0.184501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017043, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01225, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.623, "worst_return": -0.306503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-78.65383, "energy": 52.757834, "activity_lines": [ 13.955333, 14.154065, 14.692858, 15.326544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.27, "volume": 13655785, "typical_volume": 9547641.2, "trend": 16.06301, "fair_value": 15.594678, "relative_strength": -31.100284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.383065, "energy": 62.340788, "activity_lines": [ 13.35, 13.759114, 14.423619, 15.067598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 10149452, "typical_volume": 9620116.3, "trend": 15.883676, "fair_value": 15.59067, "relative_strength": -27.456506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.289533, "energy": 70.048853, "activity_lines": [ 13.054, 13.547398, 14.234856, 14.863532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.27, "volume": 8405850, "typical_volume": 9537638.75, "trend": 15.71701, "fair_value": 15.587922, "relative_strength": -26.943319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.774868, "energy": 70.227216, "activity_lines": [ 13.007333, 13.446211, 14.099235, 14.694908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }