{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31d2046c-3ad1-4466-ac17-ac3b7feeeb02", "symbol": "KCO", "name": "Kl\u00f6ckner & Co SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.597, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.586, "architecture_energy": 40.911, "architecture_maturity": 70.642, "architecture_confidence": 91.589, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.32, "rotation_up": 38.14, "upward_expansion": 52.42, "deceleration": 85.16, "rotation_down": 25.9, "downward_expansion": 28.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.353333, 12.354182, 12.367518, 12.207956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.44, "trend_reference": 11.898374, "distance_from_trend": 0.045521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.969807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.784841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.477725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142974, "excess_performance": -0.031273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.784841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104777, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009872, "annualized_volatility": 0.113417, "from_high_reference": -0.017378, "from_low_reference": 1.46419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.898374, "fair_value_reference": 6.969807, "structural_low": 10.785478, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014701, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.004733, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.146218, "worst_return": -0.130499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.080791, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.120786, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.020725, "worst_return": -0.174487, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157378, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.283667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.040889, "worst_return": -0.307361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.229217, 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"2024-01-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.141248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097512, "active": false }, { 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12.289651, 11.926375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 11.33125, "fair_value": 6.848493, "relative_strength": 15.020373, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.615, "energy": 54.072546, "activity_lines": [ 12.353333, 12.395636, 12.317791, 12.001529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 11.469338, "fair_value": 6.87702, "relative_strength": 16.588838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.919367, "energy": 51.02358, "activity_lines": [ 12.342667, 12.382909, 12.338997, 12.066609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.0, "trend": 11.619224, "fair_value": 6.904797, "relative_strength": 14.176706, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.216039, "energy": 47.141154, "activity_lines": [ 12.332, 12.366909, 12.351272, 12.121491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.28, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 11.760561, "fair_value": 6.936049, "relative_strength": 13.091323, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.960221, "energy": 35.357967, "activity_lines": [ 12.314667, 12.344364, 12.352991, 12.164121 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 11.898374, "fair_value": 6.969807, "relative_strength": 10.477725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.585578, "energy": 40.910866, "activity_lines": [ 12.353333, 12.354182, 12.367518, 12.207956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }