{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31d2a60f-3005-4eb0-b169-35f7334bde66", "symbol": "BBVA", "name": "Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.385, "architecture_energy": 87.388, "architecture_maturity": 20.873, "architecture_confidence": 82.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.86, "rotation_up": 83.95, "upward_expansion": 98.05, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 9.54, "downward_expansion": 20.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 468.66, 452.628545, 429.139991, 417.632959 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 485.579987, "trend_reference": 409.457693, "distance_from_trend": 0.18591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 267.592436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.814625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.295405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.172687, "excess_performance": 0.227353, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18591, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.814625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227703, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.202954, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.238591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.405402, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11278, "relative_activity": 0.510799, "balance": 2.405402, "dry_up": 0.614188, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051176, "annualized_volatility": 0.25338, "from_high_reference": -0.02884, "from_low_reference": 0.474918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 409.457693, "fair_value_reference": 267.592436, "structural_low": 362.23311, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.027737, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.003604, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.143442, "worst_return": -0.167786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00595, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.025623, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.339332, "worst_return": -0.096156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.106045, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.147166, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.412901, "worst_return": 0.034705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 13.877849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.80085, "energy": 81.95649, "activity_lines": [ 444.538668, 431.518546, 414.250166, 407.810708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 480.01001, "volume": 14116, "typical_volume": 46567.35, "trend": 407.516852, "fair_value": 265.330189, "relative_strength": 19.417388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.882172, "energy": 87.819566, "activity_lines": [ 457.642005, 442.406184, 421.702607, 412.596628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 485.579987, "volume": 11278, "typical_volume": 22079.15, "trend": 409.457693, "fair_value": 267.592436, "relative_strength": 20.295405, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.385257, "energy": 87.38794, "activity_lines": [ 468.66, 452.628545, 429.139991, 417.632959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }