{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31e7826d-5210-4a72-b5b2-4f64c8fdf00a", "symbol": "MSOS", "name": "ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.717, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.963, "architecture_energy": 18.945, "architecture_maturity": 8.134, "architecture_confidence": 47.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.4, "rotation_up": 15.72, "upward_expansion": 14.55, "deceleration": 60.95, "rotation_down": 56.14, "downward_expansion": 41.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.334, 4.506182, 4.611905, 4.488301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.38, "trend_reference": 4.372667, "distance_from_trend": 0.001677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.447949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.227979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.052885, "excess_performance": -0.07274, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027815, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052885, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25751477, "relative_activity": 0.694654, "balance": 0.70324, "dry_up": 0.554824, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137338, "annualized_volatility": 0.536408, "from_high_reference": -0.395862, "from_low_reference": 0.47973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.372667, "fair_value_reference": 5.447949, "structural_low": 3.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076536, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109365, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.656687, "worst_return": -0.404624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024243, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.537217, "worst_return": -0.452519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.569579, "worst_return": -0.556565, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.336898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.260323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.286316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", 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32.59322, "energy": 16.077661, "activity_lines": [ 4.74, 4.832545, 4.656238, 4.508731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.46, "volume": 23438133, "typical_volume": 38675921.95, "trend": 4.422, "fair_value": 5.466538, "relative_strength": -6.67496, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.374667, "energy": 16.544605, "activity_lines": [ 4.62, 4.763818, 4.660476, 4.51028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 13625797, "typical_volume": 37402754.85, "trend": 4.403667, "fair_value": 5.459359, "relative_strength": -10.564397, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.815362, "energy": 14.628764, "activity_lines": [ 4.472, 4.669455, 4.642905, 4.499828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.23, "volume": 19455933, "typical_volume": 36931871.15, "trend": 4.385, "fair_value": 5.451987, "relative_strength": -12.32811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.850133, "energy": 21.724466, "activity_lines": [ 4.362667, 4.572364, 4.621238, 4.488624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.38, "volume": 25751477, "typical_volume": 37070919.05, "trend": 4.372667, "fair_value": 5.447949, "relative_strength": -12.227979, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.963181, "energy": 18.944662, "activity_lines": [ 4.334, 4.506182, 4.611905, 4.488301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }