{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31e98fbb-57af-4078-9d43-bff5e091fb75", "symbol": "300123", "name": "YaGuang Technology Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.73, "architecture_energy": 32.637, "architecture_maturity": 92.476, "architecture_confidence": 82.574, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.74, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 17.27, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 32.99, "downward_expansion": 64.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.196, 4.064727, 4.25281, 4.763032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.59, "trend_reference": 5.596667, "distance_from_trend": -0.179869, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.106859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.248386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.313672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.334783, "excess_performance": -0.342182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.248386, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026802, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165646, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.334783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.490385, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 226683720, "relative_activity": 1.38407, "balance": 1.490385, "dry_up": 1.060998, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122507, "annualized_volatility": 0.840649, "from_high_reference": -0.559501, "from_low_reference": 0.412308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.596667, "fair_value_reference": 6.106859, "structural_low": 3.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.030201, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": 0.003562, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.512012, "worst_return": -0.193841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.081829, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.028039, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.47983, "worst_return": -0.261658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058452, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.106088, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.440529, "worst_return": -0.391676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 162216893, "typical_volume": 159987932.35, "trend": 5.713667, "fair_value": 6.123462, "relative_strength": -31.002252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.617024, "energy": 44.604482, "activity_lines": [ 3.976, 3.961636, 4.263619, 4.835527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.59, "volume": 226683720, "typical_volume": 163780567.7, "trend": 5.596667, "fair_value": 6.106859, "relative_strength": -27.313672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.730379, "energy": 32.63687, "activity_lines": [ 4.196, 4.064727, 4.25281, 4.763032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }