{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31f0ee0e-c758-45be-bdd7-2e364f09c089", "symbol": "IBX", "name": "Imagion Biosystems Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.391, "architecture_energy": 46.307, "architecture_maturity": 87.002, "architecture_confidence": 84.032, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.95, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 7.51, "deceleration": 56.34, "rotation_down": 42.43, "downward_expansion": 76.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.012473, 0.0139, 0.015563 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.018033, "distance_from_trend": -0.279113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.097849, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.867143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.623342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.434783, "excess_performance": -0.498488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.867143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.416233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.434783, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.807869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2873008, "relative_activity": 0.325836, "balance": 1.807869, "dry_up": 0.636799, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180473, "annualized_volatility": 0.602623, "from_high_reference": -0.763636, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.018033, "fair_value_reference": 0.097849, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.08, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.627451, "median_excess_return": -0.095054, "regime_survival": 0.901961, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.711475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.117647, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.221459, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 1.0625, "worst_return": -0.647619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.386613, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.395517, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.357143, "worst_return": -0.845833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.902083, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.204545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.012, "volume": 9270476, "typical_volume": 9292157.15, "trend": 0.0196, "fair_value": 0.113946, "relative_strength": -44.122274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.689231, "energy": 75.039105, "activity_lines": [ 0.0124, 0.0136, 0.015552, 0.01734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.012, "volume": 6281275, "typical_volume": 9042682.5, "trend": 0.019333, "fair_value": 0.10992, "relative_strength": -43.858261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.961887, "energy": 76.466475, "activity_lines": [ 0.012, 0.0132, 0.015048, 0.016849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.012, "volume": 7143020, "typical_volume": 8765256.5, "trend": 0.019033, "fair_value": 0.106151, "relative_strength": -43.41043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.524988, "energy": 73.532583, "activity_lines": [ 0.011867, 0.012855, 0.014595, 0.016376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 6162196, "typical_volume": 8835837.15, "trend": 0.018567, "fair_value": 0.101869, "relative_strength": -44.525304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.755569, "energy": 58.345405, "activity_lines": [ 0.011933, 0.012545, 0.014181, 0.015923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2873008, "typical_volume": 8817347.35, "trend": 0.018033, "fair_value": 0.097849, "relative_strength": -41.623342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.391198, "energy": 46.306575, "activity_lines": [ 0.012333, 0.012473, 0.0139, 0.015563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }