{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "31f2eacc-d9d5-4ba9-aea7-15e7dfb592a2",
    "symbol": "SGLD",
    "name": "Invesco Physical Gold ETC",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -36.45,
    "architecture_energy": 17.465,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.47,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.321,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.18,
        "rotation_up": 20.17,
        "upward_expansion": 11.94,
        "deceleration": 60.12,
        "rotation_down": 41.1,
        "downward_expansion": 64.27
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        323.336668,
        321.67909,
        329.224998,
        345.941826
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 338.200012,
    "trend_reference": 375.156664,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.09851,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 287.480833,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176426,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -19.256404,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.293503,
    "excess_performance": -0.396371,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.09851,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067999,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.176426,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101181,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.192564,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.102607,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.293503,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.783329,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 87913,
      "relative_activity": 8.590539,
      "balance": 1.783329,
      "dry_up": 3.242742,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.272495,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.434615,
      "from_high_reference": -0.367022,
      "from_low_reference": 0.09823
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 375.156664,
      "fair_value_reference": 287.480833,
      "structural_low": 307.950012,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.00886,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027536,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.083352,
        "worst_return": -0.021245,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.019468,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043716,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.038593,
        "worst_return": 0.000343,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.038949,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.086948,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.038949,
        "worst_return": 0.038949,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.076985,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047516,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.076985,
        "worst_return": -0.076985,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-03-24",
        "end": "2023-05-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.029996,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-06-02",
        "end": "2023-08-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0366,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-08-25",
        "end": "2023-09-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2023-10-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007534,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-10-20",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031292,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006618,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.071137,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.069767,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.03538,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.106388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02991,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.428918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-11",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 52091.65,
        "trend": 400.821664,
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        "relative_strength": -15.796703,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 398.811665,
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        "relative_strength": -19.814326,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -23.523165,
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.753764,
        "energy": 30.217343,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -23.805313,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.988872,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 4620,
        "typical_volume": 15356.85,
        "trend": 388.364997,
        "fair_value": 284.08423,
        "relative_strength": -23.265381,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.019171,
        "energy": 27.541329,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 310.75,
        "volume": 21184,
        "typical_volume": 13769.5,
        "trend": 384.981664,
        "fair_value": 284.865192,
        "relative_strength": -25.429046,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.985885,
        "energy": 27.700985,
        "activity_lines": [
          316.76333,
          322.299997,
          334.538331,
          357.01247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 320.149994,
        "volume": 6390,
        "typical_volume": 5553.75,
        "trend": 381.71333,
        "fair_value": 285.702692,
        "relative_strength": -22.84923,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.18003,
        "energy": 25.028146,
        "activity_lines": [
          317.32333,
          320.883633,
          331.679759,
          352.829782
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 314.649994,
        "volume": 17254,
        "typical_volume": 6379.85,
        "trend": 377.899997,
        "fair_value": 286.50891,
        "relative_strength": -24.021876,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.202709,
        "energy": 24.442233,
        "activity_lines": [
          316.299996,
          318.901814,
          329.16952,
          348.503115
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 338.200012,
        "volume": 87913,
        "typical_volume": 10233.7,
        "trend": 375.156664,
        "fair_value": 287.480833,
        "relative_strength": -19.256404,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.450217,
        "energy": 17.465211,
        "activity_lines": [
          323.336668,
          321.67909,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}