{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31f976b3-9cea-4c7b-9287-9760608f5640", "symbol": "NPK", "name": "National Presto Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.607, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.175, "architecture_energy": 13.632, "architecture_maturity": 24.564, "architecture_confidence": 71.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.43, "rotation_up": 24.48, "upward_expansion": 15.13, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 35.81, "downward_expansion": 65.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.761333, 126.727818, 129.669238, 131.079646 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 137.99, "trend_reference": 131.101965, "distance_from_trend": 0.05254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 93.617547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.473976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.11899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.064216, "excess_performance": -0.061409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05254, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066701, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.473976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02119, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.064216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631439, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 588370, "relative_activity": 1.149044, "balance": 0.631439, "dry_up": 0.88517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074951, "annualized_volatility": 0.287928, "from_high_reference": -0.079177, "from_low_reference": 0.522407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.101965, "fair_value_reference": 93.617547, "structural_low": 118.383251, "invalidation": "A 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"gate": "up", "direction": -1.453235, "energy": 11.259662, "activity_lines": [ 128.911333, 131.399091, 134.328555, 132.403767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 123.21, "volume": 402752, "typical_volume": 516662.8, "trend": 128.029265, "fair_value": 91.907916, "relative_strength": -5.104747, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.970516, "energy": 31.767773, "activity_lines": [ 126.924, 129.386727, 133.275297, 132.142262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 124.69, "volume": 414539, "typical_volume": 515918.8, "trend": 128.773383, "fair_value": 92.246367, "relative_strength": -5.251212, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.830706, "energy": 30.98695, "activity_lines": [ 125.654, 128.006182, 132.364831, 131.926826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 121.45, "volume": 456719, "typical_volume": 524227.55, "trend": 129.33271, "fair_value": 92.566488, "relative_strength": -6.158007, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.716032, "energy": 43.345131, "activity_lines": [ 123.832, 126.345455, 131.152549, 131.45435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 124.4, "volume": 287141, "typical_volume": 512212.65, "trend": 129.889749, "fair_value": 92.899984, "relative_strength": -3.341961, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.693221, "energy": 38.365526, "activity_lines": [ 123.552667, 125.603455, 130.266762, 131.13611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.42, "volume": 480781, "typical_volume": 510499.4, "trend": 130.395448, "fair_value": 93.202174, "relative_strength": -6.768358, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.250248, "energy": 37.862513, "activity_lines": [ 122.776, 124.566545, 129.154762, 130.589675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.99, "volume": 588370, "typical_volume": 512051.75, "trend": 131.101965, "fair_value": 93.617547, "relative_strength": 2.11899, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.175021, "energy": 13.631857, "activity_lines": [ 127.761333, 126.727818, 129.669238, 131.079646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }