{ "ticker": { "uuid": "31fc93be-6b97-4ec0-9246-07528d3fc2d6", "symbol": "ZVIA", "name": "Zevia Pbc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 95.662, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.641, "architecture_energy": 4.431, "architecture_maturity": 14.96, "architecture_confidence": 40.927, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.41, "rotation_up": 31.12, "upward_expansion": 36.72, "deceleration": 57.54, "rotation_down": 33.1, "downward_expansion": 20.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.574667, 1.597636, 1.540381, 1.494538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.44, "trend_reference": 1.502667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041704, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.986343, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27505, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.121107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.162791, "excess_performance": -0.288416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041704, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05785, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103987, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162791, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.386241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2933697, "relative_activity": 0.718431, "balance": 1.386241, "dry_up": 0.564696, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20726, "annualized_volatility": 0.695025, "from_high_reference": -0.573712, "from_low_reference": 0.297297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.502667, "fair_value_reference": 1.986343, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.054635, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.070183, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.241135, "worst_return": -0.22093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.174284, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.212477, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.955357, "worst_return": -0.465116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.279095, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.415178, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.017857, "worst_return": -0.453488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.552201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.361154, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.75, "worst_return": -0.645598, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.905172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171123, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.48, "volume": 796358, "typical_volume": 842431.05, "trend": 3.746333, "fair_value": 5.816514, "relative_strength": -42.599303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"direction": 23.913706, "energy": 31.388066, "activity_lines": [ 1.654667, 1.59, 1.477619, 1.484323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.7, "volume": 2916189, "typical_volume": 4214523.65, "trend": 1.553333, "fair_value": 2.00692, "relative_strength": -23.880069, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.882014, "energy": 37.952792, "activity_lines": [ 1.685333, 1.617818, 1.506333, 1.491806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 1787509, "typical_volume": 4169106.6, "trend": 1.527333, "fair_value": 1.999099, "relative_strength": -31.030389, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.725314, "energy": 26.873281, "activity_lines": [ 1.634667, 1.604727, 1.514286, 1.488366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.7, "volume": 1586312, "typical_volume": 4109569.4, "trend": 1.517, "fair_value": 1.993843, "relative_strength": -21.310234, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.27173, "energy": 21.075485, "activity_lines": [ 1.652667, 1.624909, 1.540714, 1.499505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.44, "volume": 2933697, "typical_volume": 4083480.55, "trend": 1.502667, "fair_value": 1.986343, "relative_strength": -34.121107, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.640695, "energy": 4.430687, "activity_lines": [ 1.574667, 1.597636, 1.540381, 1.494538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }