{ "ticker": { "uuid": "320022c0-612a-4cc3-848c-fb7d3f962c98", "symbol": "LLC", "name": "Lendlease Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.494, "architecture_energy": 22.25, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.445, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.79, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 22.38, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 33.54, "downward_expansion": 55.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.020667, 3.012545, 3.000238, 3.143166 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.16, "trend_reference": 3.465052, "distance_from_trend": -0.088037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.41202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416115, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.980763, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.297961, "excess_performance": -0.361667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416115, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03919, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7261821, "relative_activity": 0.626532, "balance": 0.360552, "dry_up": 0.775149, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06962, "annualized_volatility": 0.423106, "from_high_reference": -0.45157, "from_low_reference": 0.289796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.465052, "fair_value_reference": 5.41202, "structural_low": 2.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.009535, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.01761, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.264228, "worst_return": -0.216561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.043422, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.05818, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.213979, "worst_return": -0.328566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.076735, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.125791, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.142594, "worst_return": -0.393675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 12786900.85, "trend": 3.675579, "fair_value": 5.502386, "relative_strength": -32.252193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.707898, "energy": 27.895375, "activity_lines": [ 3.041333, 2.963091, 3.027238, 3.259186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.81, "volume": 10324426, "typical_volume": 12490394.6, "trend": 3.595568, "fair_value": 5.470832, "relative_strength": -34.648191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.384179, "energy": 41.511651, "activity_lines": [ 2.960667, 2.943273, 2.996143, 3.203342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 10689471, "typical_volume": 12270529.45, "trend": 3.527158, "fair_value": 5.441213, "relative_strength": -30.471744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.009989, "energy": 37.003865, "activity_lines": [ 2.964667, 2.968, 2.990857, 3.166854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.16, "volume": 7261821, "typical_volume": 11590503.35, "trend": 3.465052, "fair_value": 5.41202, "relative_strength": -28.980763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.493684, "energy": 22.250178, "activity_lines": [ 3.020667, 3.012545, 3.000238, 3.143166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }