{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3205c715-44c6-42cd-9bb5-c19accbd4c68", "symbol": "BTCE", "name": "Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETC", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.01, "architecture_energy": 34.864, "architecture_maturity": 73.847, "architecture_confidence": 84.352, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.23, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 17.62, "deceleration": 46.62, "rotation_down": 32.04, "downward_expansion": 62.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.82, 45.3, 47.132047, 48.012795 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.150002, "trend_reference": 49.744666, "distance_from_trend": -0.072262, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 57.060481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.408563, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005009, "excess_performance": -0.077875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191209, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189426, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.314086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005009, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276, "relative_activity": 0.483701, "balance": 0.621202, "dry_up": 0.717666, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045045, "annualized_volatility": 0.345861, "from_high_reference": -0.483781, "from_low_reference": 0.069649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.744666, "fair_value_reference": 57.060481, "structural_low": 43.145, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.030604, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.023961, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.257026, "worst_return": -0.275318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012804, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.862965, "worst_return": -0.303092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065335, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.05641, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.405921, "worst_return": -0.449649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077155, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.088562, "energy": 81.979705, "activity_lines": [ 44.570666, 46.016454, 48.351666, 49.41343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.110001, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 947.7, "trend": 51.431833, "fair_value": 56.638782, "relative_strength": -35.200065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.867516, "energy": 60.336424, "activity_lines": [ 44.735666, 45.468363, 47.967857, 48.967483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.32, "volume": 128, "typical_volume": 696.5, "trend": 50.9045, "fair_value": 56.782147, "relative_strength": -32.398425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.273786, "energy": 49.422406, "activity_lines": [ 45.320333, 45.321, 47.703404, 48.637688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.424999, "volume": 1229, "typical_volume": 640.3, "trend": 50.356333, "fair_value": 56.919487, "relative_strength": -32.662652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.704447, "energy": 38.152209, "activity_lines": [ 45.524666, 45.168363, 47.369047, 48.284172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.150002, "volume": 276, "typical_volume": 570.6, "trend": 49.744666, "fair_value": 57.060481, "relative_strength": -31.408563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.010259, "energy": 34.863629, "activity_lines": [ 45.82, 45.3, 47.132047, 48.012795 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }