{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3207af5b-c974-41fb-b92f-a11da8960acd", "symbol": "EX41", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.051, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.652, "architecture_energy": 27.32, "architecture_maturity": 56.137, "architecture_confidence": 77.801, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.39, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 59.65, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 31.08, "downward_expansion": 20.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.959333, 25.237909, 24.762548, 24.35743 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.035, "trend_reference": 24.061166, "distance_from_trend": 0.040473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.091686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084156, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.469701, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013153, "excess_performance": -0.161094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015453, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074157, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013153, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.400637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.400637, "dry_up": 1.966037, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032078, "annualized_volatility": 0.205786, "from_high_reference": -0.050266, "from_low_reference": 0.170133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.061166, "fair_value_reference": 23.091686, "structural_low": 21.395, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004789, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.032323, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.088765, "worst_return": -0.04786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099465, "worst_return": -0.141339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.17982, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007539, "worst_return": -0.080755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076801, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.247485, "energy": 82.081581, "activity_lines": [ 25.896667, 25.318545, 24.388, 24.147172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.084999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 760.85, "trend": 24.086166, "fair_value": 23.039827, "relative_strength": -13.226884, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.686357, "energy": 69.123505, "activity_lines": [ 25.661, 25.384182, 24.510095, 24.211989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.625, "volume": 1570, "typical_volume": 495.95, "trend": 24.071333, "fair_value": 23.053096, "relative_strength": -15.436374, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.324249, "energy": 40.73279, "activity_lines": [ 25.29, 25.330636, 24.584024, 24.246752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.815001, "volume": 2679, "typical_volume": 620.35, "trend": 24.063166, "fair_value": 23.070212, "relative_strength": -14.236289, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.040447, "energy": 27.696793, "activity_lines": [ 25.049, 25.274455, 24.668405, 24.294731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.035, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 540.3, "trend": 24.061166, "fair_value": 23.091686, "relative_strength": -15.469701, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.651959, "energy": 27.319743, "activity_lines": [ 24.959333, 25.237909, 24.762548, 24.35743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }