{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32099993-ae9e-432c-8f69-9b64fec484e0", "symbol": "FHYS", "name": "FEDERATED HERMES ETF TRUST SHORT DURATION HIGH YIELD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.552, "architecture_energy": 24.428, "architecture_maturity": 12.888, "architecture_confidence": 78.003, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.84, "rotation_up": 33.67, "upward_expansion": 59.12, "deceleration": 90.8, "rotation_down": 26.6, "downward_expansion": 13.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.949025, 22.947087, 22.942212, 22.902316 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.045, "trend_reference": 22.86129, "distance_from_trend": 0.008036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.258112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.578105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009465, "excess_performance": -0.11616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004742, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009465, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.901262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82258, "relative_activity": 0.989897, "balance": 1.901262, "dry_up": 0.889825, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00618, "annualized_volatility": 0.03127, "from_high_reference": -0.001001, "from_low_reference": 0.044246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.86129, "fair_value_reference": 21.258112, "structural_low": 22.449852, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.276436, "energy": 17.058979, "activity_lines": [ 22.946129, 22.954966, 22.924672, 22.885854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.869219, "volume": 49002, "typical_volume": 90235.1, "trend": 22.849685, "fair_value": 21.204791, "relative_strength": -6.672768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.738415, "energy": 12.827766, "activity_lines": [ 22.91791, 22.94085, 22.925204, 22.887358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.8901, "volume": 56581, "typical_volume": 84763.25, "trend": 22.853565, "fair_value": 21.231063, "relative_strength": -7.318419, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.174368, "energy": 13.478705, "activity_lines": [ 22.907971, 22.929507, 22.927016, 22.889965 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.045, "volume": 82258, "typical_volume": 83097.5, "trend": 22.86129, "fair_value": 21.258112, "relative_strength": -9.578105, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.551568, "energy": 24.428113, "activity_lines": [ 22.949025, 22.947087, 22.942212, 22.902316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }