{ "ticker": { "uuid": "320bbea2-f9d5-415e-83c9-28ff7d3aadd2", "symbol": "688158", "name": "UCloud Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.286, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.335, "architecture_energy": 62.146, "architecture_maturity": 19.028, "architecture_confidence": 74.276, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.91, "rotation_up": 13.85, "upward_expansion": 13.01, "deceleration": 39.87, "rotation_down": 65.0, "downward_expansion": 86.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.350666, 33.327636, 36.89919, 38.429161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.439999, "trend_reference": 38.853, "distance_from_trend": -0.087844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.973205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.612873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.924418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055437, "excess_performance": -0.012233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084875, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.612873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.878596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.079244, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055437, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.634756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190594895, "relative_activity": 1.265001, "balance": 0.634756, "dry_up": 0.904993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143775, "annualized_volatility": 0.717249, "from_high_reference": -0.33633, "from_low_reference": 0.588525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.853, "fair_value_reference": 21.973205, "structural_low": 26.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.127607, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069133, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.122111, "worst_return": -0.133102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.061343, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.013485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.061343, "worst_return": -0.061343, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.387153, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.22055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.387153, "worst_return": -0.387153, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.201822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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38.277333, "fair_value": 21.630256, "relative_strength": 12.870534, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.467793, "energy": 33.585223, "activity_lines": [ 36.029332, 37.467454, 40.55519, 40.26458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.99, "volume": 127854654, "typical_volume": 185363530.2, "trend": 38.461, "fair_value": 21.701474, "relative_strength": -3.711371, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.438974, "energy": 50.99175, "activity_lines": [ 34.033999, 35.669454, 39.437999, 39.729913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.27, "volume": 114374137, "typical_volume": 180468475.5, "trend": 38.572666, "fair_value": 21.773013, "relative_strength": -7.408486, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.716239, "energy": 58.75801, "activity_lines": [ 32.132666, 34.12709, 38.301666, 39.136946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.77, "volume": 112589258, "typical_volume": 159777397.3, "trend": 38.608, "fair_value": 21.855513, "relative_strength": -3.276775, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.32066, "energy": 57.132602, "activity_lines": [ 31.355333, 33.172545, 37.348904, 38.633548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.439999, "volume": 190594895, "typical_volume": 150667803.9, "trend": 38.853, "fair_value": 21.973205, "relative_strength": 7.924418, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.334781, "energy": 62.145652, "activity_lines": [ 32.350666, 33.327636, 36.89919, 38.429161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }