{ "ticker": { "uuid": "320ea962-9125-4b5b-912c-5639d39b5ae7", "symbol": "SKIN", "name": "Beauty Health Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.969, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.668, "architecture_energy": 24.726, "architecture_maturity": 89.907, "architecture_confidence": 56.575, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.92, "rotation_up": 24.24, "upward_expansion": 15.03, "deceleration": 61.17, "rotation_down": 41.5, "downward_expansion": 62.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.72272, 0.730435, 0.729169, 0.79118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.661, "trend_reference": 0.91441, "distance_from_trend": -0.27713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.074669, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.681395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -54.390468, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.483594, "excess_performance": -0.671047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27713, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204404, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.681395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.543905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.483594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.494231, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2600797, "relative_activity": 0.26665, "balance": 3.494231, "dry_up": 0.390714, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.257738, "annualized_volatility": 1.055869, "from_high_reference": -0.754275, "from_low_reference": 0.200509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.91441, "fair_value_reference": 2.074669, "structural_low": 0.5506, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.01037, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.013758, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 1.057224, "worst_return": -0.385621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.159363, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.112255, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.303951, "worst_return": -0.439523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.244768, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.46186, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.740458, "worst_return": -0.576577, "sufficient": true 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.9096, "volume": 100217538, "typical_volume": 9848913.8, "trend": 1.011993, "fair_value": 2.254333, "relative_strength": -41.85583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.558919, "energy": 18.547621, "activity_lines": [ 0.760707, 0.718805, 0.759838, 0.854697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8438, "volume": 3981428, "typical_volume": 9883622.5, "trend": 0.98912, "fair_value": 2.208396, "relative_strength": -42.890704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.390571, "energy": 19.920423, "activity_lines": [ 0.801173, 0.746682, 0.760582, 0.843846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7322, "volume": 3576182, "typical_volume": 9813906.5, "trend": 0.96486, "fair_value": 2.160846, "relative_strength": -48.663379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.135206, "energy": 20.491202, "activity_lines": [ 0.791773, 0.749471, 0.751631, 0.82727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6855, "volume": 5085059, "typical_volume": 9814588.05, "trend": 0.941043, "fair_value": 2.11524, "relative_strength": -51.404028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.32143, "energy": 16.583566, "activity_lines": [ 0.76218, 0.74216, 0.740175, 0.809247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.661, "volume": 2600797, "typical_volume": 9753600.3, "trend": 0.91441, "fair_value": 2.074669, "relative_strength": -54.390468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.667814, "energy": 24.726325, "activity_lines": [ 0.72272, 0.730435, 0.729169, 0.79118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }