{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3218d98c-c089-4e9f-abae-a5f6d2a23962", "symbol": "CEEB3", "name": "Companhia de Eletricidade do Estado da Bahia - COELBA", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.284, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.337, "architecture_energy": 11.817, "architecture_maturity": 17.82, "architecture_confidence": 46.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.14, "rotation_up": 29.72, "upward_expansion": 19.23, "deceleration": 49.33, "rotation_down": 30.77, "downward_expansion": 32.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.437999, 46.32644, 46.789712, 46.968549 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.0, "trend_reference": 46.783897, "distance_from_trend": -0.016756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.462995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.692465, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011847, "excess_performance": 0.068895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297127, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056925, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011847, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5300, "relative_activity": 3.251534, "balance": 0.278107, "dry_up": 1.809816, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02786, "annualized_volatility": 0.138649, "from_high_reference": -0.093596, "from_low_reference": 0.501855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.783897, "fair_value_reference": 35.462995, "structural_low": 43.591523, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019353, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006619, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.072068, "worst_return": -0.11589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005708, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013955, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048616, "worst_return": -0.168459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.037562, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076432, "worst_return": -0.124389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.012137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098959, "active": false }, { 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42.335646, "activity_lines": [ 48.324163, 48.321963, 47.420596, 46.036159 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 47.844631, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 2565.0, "trend": 43.960759, "fair_value": 34.247388, "relative_strength": 10.121312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.795207, "energy": 31.163142, "activity_lines": [ 48.053903, 48.277945, 47.559796, 46.320906 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 47.785286, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 2525.0, "trend": 44.488792, "fair_value": 34.365563, "relative_strength": 10.316061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.336725, "energy": 27.069029, "activity_lines": [ 47.88222, 48.198693, 47.666095, 46.56765 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 47.725933, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 2460.0, "trend": 44.928636, "fair_value": 34.493211, "relative_strength": 11.382042, "stage": 2, "regime": 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34.839083, "relative_strength": 8.043417, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.93654, "energy": 22.297313, "activity_lines": [ 46.612824, 47.163808, 47.537951, 46.994702 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 45.689999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1720.0, "trend": 46.054978, "fair_value": 34.939604, "relative_strength": 5.734197, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.451833, "energy": 29.520903, "activity_lines": [ 46.189376, 46.811019, 47.375278, 46.982155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 45.310001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 1755.0, "trend": 46.180822, "fair_value": 35.029653, "relative_strength": 4.001935, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.66419, "energy": 52.666022, "activity_lines": [ 45.778948, 46.458412, 47.175326, 46.934092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.130001, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 1745.0, "trend": 46.35525, "fair_value": 35.123167, "relative_strength": 5.767918, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.105319, "energy": 40.558578, "activity_lines": [ 46.13625, 46.490352, 47.154375, 46.99533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.5, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 1450.0, "trend": 46.497903, "fair_value": 35.212643, "relative_strength": 6.669966, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.914037, "energy": 22.765322, "activity_lines": [ 46.24217, 46.423976, 47.065667, 47.004668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.799999, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 1465.0, "trend": 46.653821, "fair_value": 35.292616, "relative_strength": 6.954447, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.590111, "energy": 11.187861, "activity_lines": [ 46.513333, 46.437134, 47.00784, 47.024158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.509998, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 1440.0, "trend": 46.718125, "fair_value": 35.378424, "relative_strength": 3.800579, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.399352, "energy": 10.769058, "activity_lines": [ 46.587999, 46.416557, 46.920966, 47.014879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.0, "volume": 5300, "typical_volume": 1630.0, "trend": 46.783897, "fair_value": 35.462995, "relative_strength": 5.692465, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.337088, "energy": 11.816909, "activity_lines": [ 46.437999, 46.32644, 46.789712, 46.968549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }