{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3224106b-a96a-4bf7-8a0d-c63f65172fe8", "symbol": "002738", "name": "Sinomine Resource Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.396, "architecture_energy": 66.42, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 63.87, "downward_expansion": 87.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.594667, 52.323455, 59.552862, 64.654104 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 53.139999, "trend_reference": 71.17253, "distance_from_trend": -0.253364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 43.377114, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.879834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.373727, "excess_performance": -0.381127, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.253364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.835597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.483676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.373727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.365444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127579000, "relative_activity": 0.985286, "balance": 0.365444, "dry_up": 1.175093, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172911, "annualized_volatility": 0.687994, "from_high_reference": -0.469102, "from_low_reference": 0.529895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.17253, "fair_value_reference": 43.377114, "structural_low": 42.310001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01029, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.015814, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.319082, "worst_return": -0.187527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008851, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.025961, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.374226, "worst_return": -0.210641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0715, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05194, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.664339, "worst_return": -0.356302, "sufficient": true }, 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"volume": 115241245, "typical_volume": 129595366.45, "trend": 71.999661, "fair_value": 43.31636, "relative_strength": -24.142954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.478504, "energy": 78.029381, "activity_lines": [ 49.083334, 52.733818, 60.825745, 65.870856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.139999, "volume": 127579000, "typical_volume": 129484207.8, "trend": 71.17253, "fair_value": 43.377114, "relative_strength": -18.879834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.395871, "energy": 66.420344, "activity_lines": [ 49.594667, 52.323455, 59.552862, 64.654104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }