{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3224f252-3c66-43f5-b0b7-5d49179c18e6", "symbol": "CMIN3", "name": "CSN Minera\u00e7\u00e3o S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.228, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.297, "architecture_energy": 67.677, "architecture_maturity": 11.726, "architecture_confidence": 68.018, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.6, "rotation_up": 71.42, "upward_expansion": 62.78, "deceleration": 23.85, "rotation_down": 16.09, "downward_expansion": 23.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.536667, 5.174182, 4.919387, 4.896751 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.45, "trend_reference": 4.970007, "distance_from_trend": 0.096578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.784135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.837505, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047532, "excess_performance": 0.009516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096578, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025618, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038375, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226563, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26318100, "relative_activity": 0.757856, "balance": 1.682595, "dry_up": 1.386498, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081157, "annualized_volatility": 0.381075, "from_high_reference": -0.144812, "from_low_reference": 0.335784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.970007, "fair_value_reference": 4.784135, "structural_low": 4.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050073, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259804, "worst_return": -0.142606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042996, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.118292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314827, "worst_return": -0.1883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048029, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.25126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.356483, "worst_return": -0.149103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 5.222, 4.874364, 4.761754, 4.816212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.71, "volume": 36648300, "typical_volume": 36503135.0, "trend": 4.966444, "fair_value": 4.769199, "relative_strength": 5.278107, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.288311, "energy": 52.178962, "activity_lines": [ 5.471333, 5.059091, 4.855352, 4.865554 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.45, "volume": 26318100, "typical_volume": 34727055.0, "trend": 4.970007, "fair_value": 4.784135, "relative_strength": 3.837505, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.296665, "energy": 67.676677, "activity_lines": [ 5.536667, 5.174182, 4.919387, 4.896751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }