{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32298bab-60d8-45da-a644-623d05661889", "symbol": "000426", "name": "Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver & Tin Mining Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.424, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.392, "architecture_energy": 38.904, "architecture_maturity": 32.553, "architecture_confidence": 78.78, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.61, "rotation_up": 24.98, "upward_expansion": 7.35, "deceleration": 54.68, "rotation_down": 50.65, "downward_expansion": 78.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.834, 33.898727, 36.584048, 38.91 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.48, "trend_reference": 42.395, "distance_from_trend": -0.068758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.320311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.942884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.638467, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.358257, "excess_performance": -0.365657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068758, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010503, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.942884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.814623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046385, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.358257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 435527324, "relative_activity": 1.572515, "balance": 0.805298, "dry_up": 1.3004, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139818, "annualized_volatility": 0.802099, "from_high_reference": -0.472193, "from_low_reference": 1.192584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.395, "fair_value_reference": 20.320311, "structural_low": 26.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029954, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.021676, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.113301, "worst_return": -0.142282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136483, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.08162, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.205592, "worst_return": -0.175034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024917, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.030792, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.466989, "worst_return": -0.145669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 35.944666, 38.035455, 40.260714, 42.087527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.0, "volume": 315992029, "typical_volume": 273066134.8, "trend": 42.763, "fair_value": 19.723032, "relative_strength": -15.084161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.749958, "energy": 65.5953, "activity_lines": [ 34.756666, 36.758, 39.367333, 41.452323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.9, "volume": 251256247, "typical_volume": 269813756.1, "trend": 42.529667, "fair_value": 19.845536, "relative_strength": -21.415173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.589999, "energy": 79.315236, "activity_lines": [ 32.207333, 34.723818, 38.060095, 40.493419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.370001, "volume": 429067886, "typical_volume": 270168892.6, "trend": 42.397667, "fair_value": 19.984637, "relative_strength": -12.488141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.128338, "energy": 67.241563, "activity_lines": [ 31.409334, 33.717818, 37.213286, 39.773441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.799999, "volume": 324795495, "typical_volume": 272504744.4, "trend": 42.265667, "fair_value": 20.127637, "relative_strength": -10.431239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.729419, "energy": 63.230924, "activity_lines": [ 31.301333, 33.022182, 36.497, 39.08972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.48, "volume": 435527324, "typical_volume": 276962254.85, "trend": 42.395, "fair_value": 20.320311, "relative_strength": 4.638467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.39247, "energy": 38.90446, "activity_lines": [ 33.834, 33.898727, 36.584048, 38.91 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }