{ "ticker": { "uuid": "322e88e3-4175-42fc-a8bf-c8fb43f30854", "symbol": "DOW", "name": "Dow Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.727, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.295, "architecture_energy": 34.23, "architecture_maturity": 15.419, "architecture_confidence": 74.64, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.64, "rotation_up": 33.91, "upward_expansion": 17.79, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 40.46, "downward_expansion": 45.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.920667, 25.945455, 27.683254, 28.465307 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.809999, "trend_reference": 28.458708, "distance_from_trend": -0.093072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.095061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.220125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.736511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008256, "excess_performance": -0.182503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093072, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.220125, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.143925, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 9.143925, "dry_up": 1.143773, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073766, "annualized_volatility": 0.482389, "from_high_reference": -0.292246, "from_low_reference": 0.542937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.458708, "fair_value_reference": 33.095061, "structural_low": 23.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00504, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028465, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.04482, "worst_return": -0.116037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018379, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.0058, "worst_return": -0.030958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007261, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092866, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010886, "worst_return": 0.003637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2024-01-05", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041466, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.459323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199005, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 26.122667, 27.867315, 29.660226, 29.127684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.280001, "volume": 3639, "typical_volume": 421.15, "trend": 27.674463, "fair_value": 33.480915, "relative_strength": -13.752338, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.930376, "energy": 65.633157, "activity_lines": [ 25.509334, 27.1284, 29.203179, 28.983548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.1, "volume": 1177, "typical_volume": 410.0, "trend": 27.891405, "fair_value": 33.396822, "relative_strength": -8.878484, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.841116, "energy": 67.633818, "activity_lines": [ 25.453334, 26.693468, 28.820812, 28.88197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 535, "typical_volume": 374.2, "trend": 28.127465, "fair_value": 33.296339, "relative_strength": -10.249158, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.725398, "energy": 61.560652, "activity_lines": [ 25.590667, 26.344487, 28.429863, 28.762525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 374.2, "trend": 28.329411, "fair_value": 33.19892, "relative_strength": -10.266986, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.477123, "energy": 37.993374, "activity_lines": [ 25.811334, 26.124182, 28.053272, 28.62785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.809999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 374.2, "trend": 28.458708, "fair_value": 33.095061, "relative_strength": -13.736511, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.295486, "energy": 34.229944, "activity_lines": [ 25.920667, 25.945455, 27.683254, 28.465307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }