{ "ticker": { "uuid": "323933bd-d604-487a-b266-1b45c0fbdd45", "symbol": "WVE", "name": "Wave Life Sciences Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.52, "architecture_energy": 56.896, "architecture_maturity": 98.635, "architecture_confidence": 90.538, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 29.26, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 48.24, "downward_expansion": 81.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.857333, 5.925091, 6.1865, 7.106699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.1, "trend_reference": 8.685833, "distance_from_trend": -0.297707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.972212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.451055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.546468, "excess_performance": -0.733922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.297707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.234842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.546468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13736994, "relative_activity": 0.691053, "balance": 0.526237, "dry_up": 0.583137, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109895, "annualized_volatility": 0.952916, "from_high_reference": -0.719282, "from_low_reference": 0.215139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.685833, "fair_value_reference": 7.972212, "structural_low": 5.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.018383, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.018599, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.905405, "worst_return": -0.255365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014215, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.827225, "worst_return": -0.497696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.345133, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.285935, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.600917, "worst_return": -0.626712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.476106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062411, 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"close": 5.81, "volume": 9210362, "typical_volume": 19888520.2, "trend": 9.291833, "fair_value": 7.960032, "relative_strength": -43.073821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.337159, "energy": 62.77932, "activity_lines": [ 5.962, 6.005273, 6.399643, 7.534161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.51, "volume": 12940606, "typical_volume": 19982816.85, "trend": 8.943833, "fair_value": 7.963301, "relative_strength": -45.77488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.795005, "energy": 65.953131, "activity_lines": [ 5.800667, 5.903636, 6.247095, 7.290172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.1, "volume": 13736994, "typical_volume": 19878361.4, "trend": 8.685833, "fair_value": 7.972212, "relative_strength": -42.451055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.520126, "energy": 56.895512, "activity_lines": [ 5.857333, 5.925091, 6.1865, 7.106699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }