{ "ticker": { "uuid": "323d990a-5851-46be-8f10-1546dbd7d2d5", "symbol": "LEONIA", "name": "Amundi EUR Overnight Return UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.228, "architecture_energy": 85.781, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.17, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.37, "rotation_up": 80.12, "upward_expansion": 96.5, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 14.85, "downward_expansion": 18.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.154666, 114.071091, 113.912377, 113.764792 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 114.209999, "trend_reference": 113.554, "distance_from_trend": 0.005777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 110.233705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.593723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010064, "excess_performance": -0.160827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036071, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00176, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010064, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.807423, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94707, "relative_activity": 0.967577, "balance": 11.807423, "dry_up": 0.931733, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.000991, "annualized_volatility": 0.002514, "from_high_reference": -0.00105, "from_low_reference": 0.020561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.554, "fair_value_reference": 110.233705, "structural_low": 113.022003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.002186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017137, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003226, "worst_return": 0.000775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00741, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036403, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.009775, "worst_return": 0.004563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013166, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.093911, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.019465, "worst_return": 0.009413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 114.18, "volume": 139409, "typical_volume": 112442.25, "trend": 113.468267, "fair_value": 110.114545, "relative_strength": -11.240045, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.557805, "energy": 92.871087, "activity_lines": [ 114.070667, 113.979801, 113.822077, 113.676289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.139999, "volume": 67360, "typical_volume": 107028.7, "trend": 113.509934, "fair_value": 110.174135, "relative_strength": -11.480746, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.617102, "energy": 86.775589, "activity_lines": [ 114.108667, 114.023219, 113.865929, 113.719626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.209999, "volume": 94707, "typical_volume": 97880.55, "trend": 113.554, "fair_value": 110.233705, "relative_strength": -13.593723, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.228127, "energy": 85.780811, "activity_lines": [ 114.154666, 114.071091, 113.912377, 113.764792 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }