{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32402a1e-5c1a-490e-8870-4a05de63a5c5", "symbol": "XDG7", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.115, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.216, "architecture_energy": 62.853, "architecture_maturity": 6.326, "architecture_confidence": 73.514, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.59, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 29.28, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 70.12, "downward_expansion": 56.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.708001, 29.511091, 30.784107, 30.657016 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.307501, "trend_reference": 30.18525, "distance_from_trend": -0.029079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.76091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287624, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.217568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032955, "excess_performance": -0.018281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055195, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287624, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3282, "relative_activity": 0.903945, "balance": 0.560341, "dry_up": 1.343524, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047855, "annualized_volatility": 0.231702, "from_high_reference": -0.161445, "from_low_reference": 0.412069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.18525, "fair_value_reference": 22.76091, "structural_low": 26.764999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.029615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029615, "worst_return": 0.029615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.049901, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020087, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049901, "worst_return": -0.049901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.087117, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.137783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.087117, "worst_return": -0.087117, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.040597, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040597, "worst_return": 0.040597, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040106, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050251, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.016001, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.62337, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064115, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050354, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { 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"fair_value": 22.713762, "relative_strength": -1.431024, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.748054, "energy": 48.02247, "activity_lines": [ 29.8605, 31.037591, 31.492274, 30.929161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.610001, "volume": 2152, "typical_volume": 3160.85, "trend": 30.024, "fair_value": 22.724275, "relative_strength": -2.656363, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.64604, "energy": 62.044189, "activity_lines": [ 29.237167, 30.446364, 31.258417, 30.844167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.9025, "volume": 8555, "typical_volume": 3513.7, "trend": 30.086833, "fair_value": 22.734676, "relative_strength": -6.389988, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.524007, "energy": 71.816606, "activity_lines": [ 28.6495, 29.802091, 30.953298, 30.707296 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.307501, "volume": 3282, "typical_volume": 3630.75, "trend": 30.18525, "fair_value": 22.76091, "relative_strength": -2.217568, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.216379, "energy": 62.852545, "activity_lines": [ 28.708001, 29.511091, 30.784107, 30.657016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }