{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3240a239-e8b3-42c1-a32b-3a4aeda799dc", "symbol": "603369", "name": "Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.469, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.978, "architecture_energy": 14.24, "architecture_maturity": 30.037, "architecture_confidence": 62.554, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.75, "rotation_up": 37.28, "upward_expansion": 32.25, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 16.43, "downward_expansion": 40.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.918, 26.066, 25.998893, 26.558433 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.26, "trend_reference": 28.003979, "distance_from_trend": -0.026567, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.655543, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.360927, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.177289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.186269, "excess_performance": -0.143065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.360927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039135, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168601, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70413414, "relative_activity": 1.291318, "balance": 0.712836, "dry_up": 1.535297, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088097, "annualized_volatility": 0.359509, "from_high_reference": -0.402193, "from_low_reference": 0.16446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.003979, "fair_value_reference": 42.655543, "structural_low": 23.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.022029, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.006119, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.182439, "worst_return": -0.236304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.067212, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015938, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.310491, "worst_return": -0.182724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.152842, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.033235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065648, "worst_return": -0.345128, 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0.070709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062227, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.191772, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", 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"direction": -59.281958, "energy": 50.96985, "activity_lines": [ 24.668666, 25.275238, 25.771833, 27.045803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.629999, "volume": 91079653, "typical_volume": 46982257.1, "trend": 28.814312, "fair_value": 43.138971, "relative_strength": -19.806196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.420363, "energy": 36.989678, "activity_lines": [ 24.998666, 25.248131, 25.688884, 26.82045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.52, "volume": 79530403, "typical_volume": 49023128.35, "trend": 28.472312, "fair_value": 42.983515, "relative_strength": -20.389342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.0538, "energy": 24.855383, "activity_lines": [ 25.254, 25.225668, 25.62222, 26.607914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.700001, "volume": 93845267, "typical_volume": 52505848.55, "trend": 28.254645, "fair_value": 42.823503, "relative_strength": -10.131489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.988853, "energy": 9.978897, "activity_lines": [ 26.484, 25.801401, 25.877462, 26.622603 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.26, "volume": 70413414, "typical_volume": 54528327.0, "trend": 28.003979, "fair_value": 42.655543, "relative_strength": -16.177289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.978425, "energy": 14.239958, "activity_lines": [ 26.918, 26.066, 25.998893, 26.558433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }