{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32450943-3b04-4449-835c-06a601e2a14e", "symbol": "603680", "name": "KTK Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.539, "architecture_energy": 58.342, "architecture_maturity": 58.65, "architecture_confidence": 88.605, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 10.56, "deceleration": 59.46, "rotation_down": 51.82, "downward_expansion": 81.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.943333, 10.041422, 11.066312, 11.831175 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.42, "trend_reference": 12.925236, "distance_from_trend": -0.193825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.861414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.784473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.30856, "excess_performance": -0.265356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056644, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.428501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.30856, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262744, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44157845, "relative_activity": 1.798745, "balance": 1.262744, "dry_up": 1.543775, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093608, "annualized_volatility": 0.387553, "from_high_reference": -0.419499, "from_low_reference": 0.181406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.925236, "fair_value_reference": 9.861414, "structural_low": 8.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00604, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.17154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.07349, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009239, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.147697, "worst_return": -0.273438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.119709, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.083188, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.172087, "worst_return": -0.229167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.296624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025501, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 9.897333, 10.514487, 11.71427, 12.474274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.49, "volume": 42715433, "typical_volume": 23046434.45, "trend": 13.302569, "fair_value": 9.846837, "relative_strength": -23.457262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.446882, "energy": 68.236958, "activity_lines": [ 9.708667, 10.183126, 11.428284, 12.219184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.96, "volume": 35124585, "typical_volume": 23163171.6, "trend": 13.091569, "fair_value": 9.852373, "relative_strength": -19.607805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.614602, "energy": 64.868139, "activity_lines": [ 9.754, 10.03702, 11.215822, 12.003534 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.42, "volume": 44157845, "typical_volume": 24549256.55, "trend": 12.925236, "fair_value": 9.861414, "relative_strength": -17.784473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.539004, "energy": 58.341677, "activity_lines": [ 9.943333, 10.041422, 11.066312, 11.831175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }