{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32508ebe-0a62-4276-a646-7e81a3295ff5", "symbol": "300743", "name": "Hangzhou Todaytec Digital Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.665, "architecture_energy": 58.128, "architecture_maturity": 59.112, "architecture_confidence": 93.149, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 23.35, "upward_expansion": 10.02, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 55.28, "downward_expansion": 81.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.162, 14.398143, 15.524832, 16.408253 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.91, "trend_reference": 17.785377, "distance_from_trend": -0.161671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.488758, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.950504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268759, "excess_performance": -0.276159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078163, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268759, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331155, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13650776, "relative_activity": 1.180338, "balance": 0.331155, "dry_up": 1.16615, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081977, "annualized_volatility": 0.33698, "from_high_reference": -0.383375, "from_low_reference": 0.155814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.785377, "fair_value_reference": 15.488758, "structural_low": 12.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023508, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.050028, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.277066, "worst_return": -0.360863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.105807, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.088889, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.116636, "worst_return": -0.171243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075285, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041137, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.003617, "worst_return": -0.125119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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86.45181, "activity_lines": [ 15.177859, 15.98997, 16.989625, 17.824482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.36, "volume": 11022439, "typical_volume": 11785817.5, "trend": 18.68471, "fair_value": 15.504241, "relative_strength": -31.751021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.765861, "energy": 88.011457, "activity_lines": [ 14.822568, 15.549582, 16.66681, 17.5382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.92, "volume": 11930065, "typical_volume": 11714743.95, "trend": 18.52671, "fair_value": 15.4999, "relative_strength": -26.578103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.985019, "energy": 83.097394, "activity_lines": [ 14.470055, 15.109967, 16.328803, 17.230799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.0, "volume": 15528101, "typical_volume": 11499911.55, "trend": 18.270377, "fair_value": 15.489245, "relative_strength": -30.893119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.185868, "energy": 77.156, "activity_lines": [ 13.917569, 14.595504, 15.934131, 16.874237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.17, "volume": 12837811, "typical_volume": 11482348.35, "trend": 18.032377, "fair_value": 15.48303, "relative_strength": -22.744457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.714596, "energy": 65.27839, "activity_lines": [ 13.903333, 14.392309, 15.681696, 16.609697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.91, "volume": 13650776, "typical_volume": 11565144.15, "trend": 17.785377, "fair_value": 15.488758, "relative_strength": -21.950504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.664958, "energy": 58.127638, "activity_lines": [ 14.162, 14.398143, 15.524832, 16.408253 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }