{ "ticker": { "uuid": "325c42e6-c61a-4a00-be7e-f863e3b76e99", "symbol": "EDMU", "name": "iShares MSCI USA CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.593, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.711, "architecture_energy": 64.839, "architecture_maturity": 57.376, "architecture_confidence": 72.911, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.18, "rotation_up": 54.68, "upward_expansion": 81.54, "deceleration": 67.47, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 10.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.576533, 13.500436, 13.363514, 13.093338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.918, "trend_reference": 12.7922, "distance_from_trend": 0.088007, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.661335, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305465, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.539917, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130809, "excess_performance": 0.047926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088007, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305465, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010737, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005399, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.236469, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 577961, "relative_activity": 0.598731, "balance": 2.236469, "dry_up": 0.879223, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017973, "annualized_volatility": 0.134724, "from_high_reference": -0.00258, "from_low_reference": 0.224529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.7922, "fair_value_reference": 10.661335, "structural_low": 11.366, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.018139, "positive_rate": 0.710526, "directional_follow_through": 0.710526, "median_excess_return": 0.004226, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.062243, "worst_return": -0.090705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026223, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.024506, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.1294, "worst_return": -0.075482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068806, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009774, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.15499, "worst_return": -0.180261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083742, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.067037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.00471, "energy": 59.259169, "activity_lines": [ 13.450933, 13.428909, 13.178086, 12.931269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.336, "volume": 1176173, "typical_volume": 960328.25, "trend": 12.7134, "fair_value": 10.590033, "relative_strength": -2.309952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.850702, "energy": 57.933529, "activity_lines": [ 13.423067, 13.414036, 13.225733, 12.973381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4, "volume": 1561138, "typical_volume": 997844.75, "trend": 12.745267, "fair_value": 10.623623, "relative_strength": -1.888979, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.558549, "energy": 50.871769, "activity_lines": [ 13.420533, 13.41, 13.2734, 13.017677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.918, "volume": 577961, "typical_volume": 965310.7, "trend": 12.7922, "fair_value": 10.661335, "relative_strength": 0.539917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.710849, "energy": 64.838867, "activity_lines": [ 13.576533, 13.500436, 13.363514, 13.093338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }