{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3261b7ad-980d-474f-90b3-35a87d235cff",
    "symbol": "PTF",
    "name": "INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT TECHNOLOGY MOMENTUM ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 84.284,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -17.333,
    "architecture_energy": 27.018,
    "architecture_maturity": 47.389,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.351,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.34,
        "rotation_up": 14.43,
        "upward_expansion": 15.7,
        "deceleration": 69.75,
        "rotation_down": 59.56,
        "downward_expansion": 40.7
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        103.775913,
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        114.322257,
        110.514424
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 108.1659,
    "trend_reference": 104.22268,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.037835,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 70.287966,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.538896,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 3.882378,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.219579,
    "excess_performance": 0.032125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037835,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.137308,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.538896,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.334794,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038824,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.232157,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.219579,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.916428,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 773096,
      "relative_activity": 1.216874,
      "balance": 0.916428,
      "dry_up": 1.691596,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.143793,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.437613,
      "from_high_reference": -0.22545,
      "from_low_reference": 0.68265
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 104.22268,
      "fair_value_reference": 70.287966,
      "structural_low": 80.58,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.000801,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001641,
        "regime_survival": 0.3,
        "best_return": 0.2415,
        "worst_return": -0.152795,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.050591,
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        "worst_return": -0.221601,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
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        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039607,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013834,
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        "worst_return": -0.363924,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.077776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.132259,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.154986,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022003,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 450742.05,
        "trend": 101.149747,
        "fair_value": 68.916984,
        "relative_strength": 12.212884,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 1004259,
        "typical_volume": 493914.8,
        "trend": 101.886163,
        "fair_value": 69.242351,
        "relative_strength": 1.156748,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 10.35938,
        "energy": 18.928266,
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          112.913007,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 102.3364,
        "volume": 934587,
        "typical_volume": 529369.9,
        "trend": 102.694117,
        "fair_value": 69.572974,
        "relative_strength": 4.567913,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -1.714427,
        "energy": 21.079287,
        "activity_lines": [
          107.517627,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 98.14,
        "volume": 1586831,
        "typical_volume": 604064.7,
        "trend": 103.331657,
        "fair_value": 69.891464,
        "relative_strength": -0.521986,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.676081,
        "energy": 31.986473,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.045787,
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          114.660211,
          110.202537
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.1659,
        "volume": 773096,
        "typical_volume": 635313.1,
        "trend": 104.22268,
        "fair_value": 70.287966,
        "relative_strength": 3.882378,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.333238,
        "energy": 27.018285,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.775913,
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          110.514424
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}