{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3264af35-eb5a-4c64-8c7b-379213ed9bd9", "symbol": "DNA", "name": "Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.544, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.227, "architecture_energy": 19.637, "architecture_maturity": 18.469, "architecture_confidence": 44.827, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.17, "rotation_up": 17.65, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 65.75, "rotation_down": 55.52, "downward_expansion": 39.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.946667, 8.469273, 8.531619, 8.331957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.97, "trend_reference": 8.318667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.763321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.85879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210891, "excess_performance": -0.336516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03874, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064425, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6864940, "relative_activity": 1.200948, "balance": 0.651735, "dry_up": 0.804591, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193611, "annualized_volatility": 0.887883, "from_high_reference": -0.546644, "from_low_reference": 0.484171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.318667, "fair_value_reference": 21.763321, "structural_low": 5.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036017, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.07208, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.457055, "worst_return": -0.260223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.184578, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.177362, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.326721, "worst_return": -0.27881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.054842, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.2066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.052966, "worst_return": -0.546468, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 5942193.2, "trend": 8.416, "fair_value": 23.241397, "relative_strength": -25.587143, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.828269, "energy": 29.084468, "activity_lines": [ 9.118667, 9.015455, 8.63319, 8.444108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.36, "volume": 3720854, "typical_volume": 5779371.8, "trend": 8.381333, "fair_value": 22.662936, "relative_strength": -29.191666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.450438, "energy": 8.888514, "activity_lines": [ 8.450667, 8.746, 8.561571, 8.375978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.09, "volume": 3443051, "typical_volume": 5606586.35, "trend": 8.361, "fair_value": 22.191718, "relative_strength": -22.054058, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.997868, "energy": 15.65039, "activity_lines": [ 8.146667, 8.615636, 8.555381, 8.357183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.97, "volume": 6864940, "typical_volume": 5716267.7, "trend": 8.318667, "fair_value": 21.763321, "relative_strength": -24.85879, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.226527, "energy": 19.637104, "activity_lines": [ 7.946667, 8.469273, 8.531619, 8.331957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }