{ "ticker": { "uuid": "326596e7-4b8a-4eb4-a32b-77e8e4caf43c", "symbol": "STXN", "name": "Seagate Technology Holdings plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.485, "architecture_energy": 25.405, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.235, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.58, "rotation_up": 20.61, "upward_expansion": 55.56, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 29.56, "downward_expansion": 21.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 14860.153255, 15396.211558, 14802.605105, 13273.037587 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14797.0, "trend_reference": 11204.885885, "distance_from_trend": 0.320585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3919.500545, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.775226, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 77.67562, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.114067, "excess_performance": 1.168733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.320585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.469864, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.775226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.140845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.776756, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.114067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.543387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 844, "relative_activity": 0.678184, "balance": 1.543387, "dry_up": 0.389916, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119389, "annualized_volatility": 0.578852, "from_high_reference": -0.199551, "from_low_reference": 4.147329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11204.885885, "fair_value_reference": 3919.500545, "structural_low": 6229.382813, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.026644, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.28704, "worst_return": -0.108809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007748, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.058199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459764, "worst_return": -0.23192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122797, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038388, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.205886, "worst_return": -0.231522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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86.737937, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.674916, "energy": 27.460092, "activity_lines": [ 15029.159896, 15570.991829, 14634.973541, 13020.368929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14797.0, "volume": 844, "typical_volume": 1244.5, "trend": 11204.885885, "fair_value": 3919.500545, "relative_strength": 77.67562, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.484711, "energy": 25.405197, "activity_lines": [ 14860.153255, 15396.211558, 14802.605105, 13273.037587 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }