{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3268a25a-56f3-41e0-a152-62de4daa8421", "symbol": "KCPSUGIND", "name": "K.C.P. Sugar and Industries Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.835, "architecture_energy": 82.434, "architecture_maturity": 21.099, "architecture_confidence": 79.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.85, "rotation_up": 76.61, "upward_expansion": 88.96, "deceleration": 48.07, "rotation_down": 16.02, "downward_expansion": 24.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.424666, 25.932181, 25.031619, 24.681182 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 29.959999, "trend_reference": 24.186, "distance_from_trend": 0.238733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.599725, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158421, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.007564, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.342896, "excess_performance": 0.386605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.238733, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158421, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.140076, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185538, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.342896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.353711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2232020, "relative_activity": 1.491322, "balance": 3.353711, "dry_up": 3.449461, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075614, "annualized_volatility": 0.481139, "from_high_reference": -0.186687, "from_low_reference": 0.396736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.186, "fair_value_reference": 35.599725, "structural_low": 21.450001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.075845, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.062923, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.195503, "worst_return": -0.201626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.045936, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.025381, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.203854, "worst_return": -0.184993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028589, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040869, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.314168, "worst_return": -0.246489, 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"typical_volume": 1189750.8, "trend": 23.832, "fair_value": 35.577725, "relative_strength": 9.429948, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.696166, "energy": 11.856664, "activity_lines": [ 23.846666, 23.217999, 23.754523, 23.77458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.950001, "volume": 6471002, "typical_volume": 1458314.55, "trend": 24.025666, "fair_value": 35.597003, "relative_strength": 22.392013, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.202102, "energy": 69.584004, "activity_lines": [ 26.794667, 24.826909, 24.50819, 24.298322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.959999, "volume": 2232020, "typical_volume": 1496671.85, "trend": 24.186, "fair_value": 35.599725, "relative_strength": 14.007564, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.835344, "energy": 82.434318, "activity_lines": [ 28.424666, 25.932181, 25.031619, 24.681182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }