{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3269143f-402b-4994-8d5b-f400d8f13d6c", "symbol": "OXYP34", "name": "Occidental Petroleum Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.714, "architecture_energy": 14.091, "architecture_maturity": 19.2, "architecture_confidence": 65.79, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.79, "rotation_up": 48.52, "upward_expansion": 31.76, "deceleration": 45.01, "rotation_down": 18.41, "downward_expansion": 20.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.498666, 46.482892, 46.826651, 47.210896 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47.41, "trend_reference": 46.523426, "distance_from_trend": 0.019057, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.330996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023289, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.23278, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.183509, "excess_performance": 0.240557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019057, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023289, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062328, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183509, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13331, "relative_activity": 0.559679, "balance": 1.15123, "dry_up": 0.935839, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073413, "annualized_volatility": 0.474975, "from_high_reference": -0.192196, "from_low_reference": 0.348411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.523426, "fair_value_reference": 46.330996, "structural_low": 38.892371, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009877, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.04739, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.25641, "worst_return": -0.102995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378867, "worst_return": -0.238521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05032, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.130656, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.467357, "worst_return": -0.174639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 46.363133, "relative_strength": 3.160673, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.424255, "energy": 32.34262, "activity_lines": [ 44.824, 45.68096, 46.886319, 46.806491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.41, "volume": 16045, "typical_volume": 32826.7, "trend": 45.885068, "fair_value": 46.37092, "relative_strength": 7.145995, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.822059, "energy": 11.623796, "activity_lines": [ 46.11, 46.003908, 46.899467, 46.995261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.029999, "volume": 14795, "typical_volume": 28417.6, "trend": 46.212587, "fair_value": 46.359296, "relative_strength": 4.167422, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.101859, "energy": 16.69179, "activity_lines": [ 47.067333, 46.290047, 46.884702, 47.133644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.41, "volume": 13331, "typical_volume": 23819.0, "trend": 46.523426, "fair_value": 46.330996, "relative_strength": 6.23278, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.713545, "energy": 14.091115, "activity_lines": [ 47.498666, 46.482892, 46.826651, 47.210896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }