{ "ticker": { "uuid": "326a0f63-6cc1-4fdb-956e-1e171362f23d", "symbol": "300204", "name": "Staidson (Beijing) BioPharmaceuticals Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.117, "architecture_energy": 18.712, "architecture_maturity": 45.042, "architecture_confidence": 80.939, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.5, "rotation_up": 23.25, "upward_expansion": 13.03, "deceleration": 44.85, "rotation_down": 32.23, "downward_expansion": 60.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.370667, 22.993273, 24.04619, 24.880559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.58, "trend_reference": 25.926, "distance_from_trend": -0.051917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.601603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396464, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.656192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042089, "excess_performance": -0.049489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042089, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882958, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161889628, "relative_activity": 1.050426, "balance": 0.882958, "dry_up": 1.365804, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1653, "annualized_volatility": 0.588411, "from_high_reference": -0.631263, "from_low_reference": 0.268318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.926, "fair_value_reference": 17.601603, "structural_low": 19.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.005137, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.005902, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.266781, "worst_return": -0.138211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.078639, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.059828, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.421569, "worst_return": -0.168634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013857, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.107305, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.262866, "worst_return": -0.248809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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26.392333, "fair_value": 17.350769, "relative_strength": -25.652897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.548499, "energy": 25.337902, "activity_lines": [ 23.408, 23.207454, 24.809476, 25.51901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.190001, "volume": 226428900, "typical_volume": 144518637.9, "trend": 26.226333, "fair_value": 17.429359, "relative_strength": -31.557612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.094294, "energy": 20.923588, "activity_lines": [ 23.286667, 22.918909, 24.468952, 25.247892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.969999, "volume": 140080144, "typical_volume": 148563296.7, "trend": 26.017333, "fair_value": 17.506987, "relative_strength": -29.893466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.957645, "energy": 22.948975, "activity_lines": [ 22.979333, 22.680182, 24.124905, 24.97329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.58, "volume": 161889628, "typical_volume": 154118049.65, "trend": 25.926, "fair_value": 17.601603, "relative_strength": -23.656192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.117045, "energy": 18.712435, "activity_lines": [ 23.370667, 22.993273, 24.04619, 24.880559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }