{ "ticker": { "uuid": "326e2dfb-c99a-4f23-841d-15f758504b00", "symbol": "ALUP11", "name": "Alupar Investimento S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.217, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.591, "architecture_energy": 28.029, "architecture_maturity": 15.307, "architecture_confidence": 85.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.33, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 9.24, "deceleration": 49.39, "rotation_down": 43.65, "downward_expansion": 68.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.656667, 32.722001, 32.925316, 33.317103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.060001, "trend_reference": 33.717736, "distance_from_trend": -0.049165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.420062, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.171151, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053501, "excess_performance": 0.003548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020303, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053501, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476602, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5717400, "relative_activity": 1.714268, "balance": 0.476602, "dry_up": 1.071058, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046747, "annualized_volatility": 0.236765, "from_high_reference": -0.130464, "from_low_reference": 0.149387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.717736, "fair_value_reference": 28.420062, "structural_low": 30.950001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013986, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008146, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094078, "worst_return": -0.05215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053571, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034698, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.227963, "worst_return": -0.052186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097886, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16388, "worst_return": 0.089375, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 33.279999, "volume": 3323000, "typical_volume": 3804140.0, "trend": 33.61835, "fair_value": 28.259418, "relative_strength": -2.997709, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.572633, "energy": 20.974804, "activity_lines": [ 33.208667, 32.792909, 33.231025, 33.540831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.830002, "volume": 2365800, "typical_volume": 3681760.0, "trend": 33.665346, "fair_value": 28.313851, "relative_strength": -4.259315, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.90558, "energy": 20.570619, "activity_lines": [ 33.213334, 32.83891, 33.155315, 33.48997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.62, "volume": 2882500, "typical_volume": 3622455.0, "trend": 33.694091, "fair_value": 28.367525, "relative_strength": -6.680558, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.704254, "energy": 18.899265, "activity_lines": [ 33.022667, 32.828, 33.06315, 33.422529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.060001, "volume": 5717400, "typical_volume": 3335185.0, "trend": 33.717736, "fair_value": 28.420062, "relative_strength": -5.171151, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.590619, "energy": 28.028746, "activity_lines": [ 32.656667, 32.722001, 32.925316, 33.317103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }