{ "ticker": { "uuid": "326ee78a-8fb3-4d4b-b690-b438ce1078ec", "symbol": "000063", "name": "ZTE Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.609, "architecture_energy": 36.436, "architecture_maturity": 30.226, "architecture_confidence": 84.949, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.74, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 6.81, "deceleration": 42.12, "rotation_down": 62.34, "downward_expansion": 80.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.909518, 35.695774, 36.170122, 36.204115 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.700001, "trend_reference": 36.635094, "distance_from_trend": -0.052821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.983123, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052053, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.308242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098467, "excess_performance": -0.105867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052053, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098467, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771208, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 674694312, "relative_activity": 1.03928, "balance": 0.771208, "dry_up": 1.713051, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112134, "annualized_volatility": 0.395228, "from_high_reference": -0.378693, "from_low_reference": 0.091195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.635094, "fair_value_reference": 32.983123, "structural_low": 31.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.02153, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.009737, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.353591, "worst_return": -0.133377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061573, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009063, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.449549, "worst_return": -0.308485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0844, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.097459, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.166327, "worst_return": -0.232482, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037334, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101611, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 37.454168, 37.284801, 36.749748, 36.781657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.565208, "volume": 1618296253, "typical_volume": 577447669.65, "trend": 36.957851, "fair_value": 33.102835, "relative_strength": -9.453942, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.195933, "energy": 8.588885, "activity_lines": [ 36.945217, 36.981378, 36.669862, 36.68711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.577286, "volume": 1488352537, "typical_volume": 626293319.0, "trend": 36.876094, "fair_value": 33.060647, "relative_strength": -12.033288, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.008454, "energy": 17.268427, "activity_lines": [ 36.159278, 36.554967, 36.510577, 36.533525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.810001, "volume": 667067460, "typical_volume": 632799744.15, "trend": 36.73976, "fair_value": 33.007279, "relative_strength": -12.397377, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.704607, "energy": 32.364752, "activity_lines": [ 35.338425, 36.027825, 36.291659, 36.335713 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.700001, "volume": 674694312, "typical_volume": 649194098.35, "trend": 36.635094, "fair_value": 32.983123, "relative_strength": -14.308242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.609204, "energy": 36.435803, "activity_lines": [ 34.909518, 35.695774, 36.170122, 36.204115 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }