{ "ticker": { "uuid": "327c3170-0243-4a1d-8508-6c56398837d5", "symbol": "PNRG", "name": "PrimeEnergy Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.148, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.777, "architecture_energy": 20.198, "architecture_maturity": 17.235, "architecture_confidence": 65.338, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.31, "rotation_up": 23.29, "upward_expansion": 13.69, "deceleration": 39.65, "rotation_down": 29.82, "downward_expansion": 59.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 184.647333, 182.217091, 193.368286, 198.69114 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 184.3, "trend_reference": 199.844667, "distance_from_trend": -0.077784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 155.121058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188104, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.036377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045226, "excess_performance": -0.23268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188104, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.441395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045226, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.054732, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 353517, "relative_activity": 1.09189, "balance": 1.054732, "dry_up": 1.099666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152972, "annualized_volatility": 0.814089, "from_high_reference": -0.33919, "from_low_reference": 0.45807 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 199.844667, "fair_value_reference": 155.121058, "structural_low": 156.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016326, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.011626, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.153622, "worst_return": -0.23196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.124171, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.037311, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.439726, "worst_return": -0.229032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.380108, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.162227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.013902, "worst_return": -0.22782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.381065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.232236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121774, "active": false }, { 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44.233754, "activity_lines": [ 178.534, 197.650182, 208.240952, 205.198538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 173.3, "volume": 254926, "typical_volume": 292033.55, "trend": 198.274833, "fair_value": 152.210032, "relative_strength": -17.071239, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.96404, "energy": 46.226531, "activity_lines": [ 177.048667, 190.947273, 204.815381, 203.551344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 177.19, "volume": 381142, "typical_volume": 300001.65, "trend": 198.403333, "fair_value": 152.773237, "relative_strength": -16.433865, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.157727, "energy": 41.857011, "activity_lines": [ 176.281333, 185.982545, 201.753667, 202.191032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 186.51, "volume": 294427, "typical_volume": 305206.05, "trend": 199.005333, "fair_value": 153.370224, "relative_strength": -8.097821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.243143, "energy": 26.012703, "activity_lines": [ 179.048, 183.425818, 199.631238, 201.42372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 187.2, "volume": 382270, "typical_volume": 308391.4, "trend": 199.390667, "fair_value": 153.961186, "relative_strength": -6.014669, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.922358, "energy": 17.702949, "activity_lines": [ 182.321333, 181.949818, 197.633524, 200.662086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.1, "volume": 393924, "typical_volume": 319524.0, "trend": 199.559, "fair_value": 154.535481, "relative_strength": -7.965566, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.017975, "energy": 14.498594, "activity_lines": [ 183.767333, 181.382182, 195.440048, 199.675591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184.3, "volume": 353517, "typical_volume": 323766.15, "trend": 199.844667, "fair_value": 155.121058, "relative_strength": -12.036377, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.776735, "energy": 20.198286, "activity_lines": [ 184.647333, 182.217091, 193.368286, 198.69114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }