{ "ticker": { "uuid": "327f9040-04ff-4596-a57c-65494241e331", "symbol": "VRRM", "name": "Verra Mobility Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.312, "architecture_energy": 58.352, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.079, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.91, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 51.21, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.678, 4.528, 6.567571, 8.798172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.9, "trend_reference": 11.995667, "distance_from_trend": -0.591519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.512308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.772223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.259824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.740329, "excess_performance": -0.927782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.591519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330636, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.772223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403885, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.752598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.740329, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.448372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32179188, "relative_activity": 1.195385, "balance": 0.448372, "dry_up": 1.126878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.315699, "annualized_volatility": 1.592288, "from_high_reference": -0.808332, "from_low_reference": 0.441176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.995667, "fair_value_reference": 21.512308, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.016729, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.18932, "worst_return": -0.643511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084296, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000131, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.263744, "worst_return": -0.730102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017982, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018053, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.395245, "worst_return": -0.793309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.022985, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.150742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143686, "worst_return": -0.097716, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006594, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023466, 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8.042095, 10.432108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.05, "volume": 14673715, "typical_volume": 23569613.65, "trend": 13.173, "fair_value": 21.704744, "relative_strength": -79.420853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.441221, "energy": 67.722482, "activity_lines": [ 4.146, 4.435636, 7.429476, 9.803849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.29, "volume": 51679170, "typical_volume": 25775647.25, "trend": 12.605, "fair_value": 21.607821, "relative_strength": -72.589604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.469708, "energy": 61.025128, "activity_lines": [ 4.503333, 4.442727, 6.994095, 9.295269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.9, "volume": 32179188, "typical_volume": 26919520.25, "trend": 11.995667, "fair_value": 21.512308, "relative_strength": -75.259824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.312001, "energy": 58.351835, "activity_lines": [ 4.678, 4.528, 6.567571, 8.798172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }