{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3296c201-49fe-4347-aa9c-3c32e38ee888", "symbol": "NCA", "name": "Nuveen California Municipal Value Fund.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.695, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.688, "architecture_energy": 51.231, "architecture_maturity": 3.183, "architecture_confidence": 91.053, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.41, "rotation_up": 15.23, "upward_expansion": 15.56, "deceleration": 33.12, "rotation_down": 57.9, "downward_expansion": 79.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.097333, 9.166069, 9.22149, 9.228342 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.11, "trend_reference": 9.246751, "distance_from_trend": -0.014789, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.36587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088948, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.695529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038752, "excess_performance": -0.164377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096955, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 309139, "relative_activity": 1.073339, "balance": 0.51743, "dry_up": 1.233289, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023332, "annualized_volatility": 0.125451, "from_high_reference": -0.062496, "from_low_reference": 0.119945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.246751, "fair_value_reference": 8.36587, "structural_low": 8.765167, 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279465.75, "trend": 9.22804, "fair_value": 8.339705, "relative_strength": -4.480705, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.531126, "energy": 22.869692, "activity_lines": [ 9.318724, 9.27664, 9.280252, 9.267884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.02, "volume": 472004, "typical_volume": 285853.05, "trend": 9.240264, "fair_value": 8.347561, "relative_strength": -6.811693, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.79921, "energy": 8.811963, "activity_lines": [ 9.22734, 9.230463, 9.258643, 9.254462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.97, "volume": 450729, "typical_volume": 290525.35, "trend": 9.244608, "fair_value": 8.356124, "relative_strength": -8.151274, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.342601, "energy": 48.281587, "activity_lines": [ 9.127998, 9.182996, 9.232897, 9.237026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.11, "volume": 309139, "typical_volume": 288016.05, "trend": 9.246751, "fair_value": 8.36587, "relative_strength": -9.695529, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.68841, "energy": 51.230924, "activity_lines": [ 9.097333, 9.166069, 9.22149, 9.228342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }