{ "ticker": { "uuid": "329a8fc9-d116-4728-966c-94a5b1c2bbeb", "symbol": "ORG", "name": "Origin Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.815, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.632, "architecture_energy": 35.677, "architecture_maturity": 40.029, "architecture_confidence": 59.469, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.35, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 17.0, "deceleration": 62.65, "rotation_down": 39.71, "downward_expansion": 67.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.702, 10.681636, 10.949048, 11.203828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.82, "trend_reference": 11.4, "distance_from_trend": -0.050877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.87896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.957882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016858, "excess_performance": -0.046847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015981, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.480659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16269944, "relative_activity": 1.01672, "balance": 3.480659, "dry_up": 1.407897, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040488, "annualized_volatility": 0.242551, "from_high_reference": -0.157321, "from_low_reference": 0.07984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.4, "fair_value_reference": 9.87896, "structural_low": 10.02, "invalidation": 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"activity_lines": [ 10.552, 10.700727, 11.151524, 11.336751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.62, "volume": 26162466, "typical_volume": 16795418.15, "trend": 11.41865, "fair_value": 9.832696, "relative_strength": -8.002874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.087483, "energy": 61.8406, "activity_lines": [ 10.554, 10.662364, 11.067667, 11.284299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.76, "volume": 25381630, "typical_volume": 16821526.65, "trend": 11.40865, "fair_value": 9.855663, "relative_strength": -8.787519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.96797, "energy": 49.274028, "activity_lines": [ 10.611333, 10.665273, 11.003429, 11.241806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.82, "volume": 16269944, "typical_volume": 16002377.45, "trend": 11.4, "fair_value": 9.87896, "relative_strength": -10.957882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.632104, "energy": 35.677405, "activity_lines": [ 10.702, 10.681636, 10.949048, 11.203828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }