{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32a06131-88e2-490f-ba3a-a1978822027b", "symbol": "MEGA", "name": "Amundi MSCI USA Mega Cap UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.786, "architecture_energy": 57.525, "architecture_maturity": 74.275, "architecture_confidence": 70.895, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.4, "rotation_up": 49.59, "upward_expansion": 80.25, "deceleration": 71.16, "rotation_down": 28.91, "downward_expansion": 9.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.752133, 11.707673, 11.559581, 11.254389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.044, "trend_reference": 10.8927, "distance_from_trend": 0.105695, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.965888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208523, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.379173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.180321, "excess_performance": 0.115682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039355, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053792, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.305239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10916, "relative_activity": 2.415766, "balance": 2.305239, "dry_up": 1.351344, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024372, "annualized_volatility": 0.161408, "from_high_reference": -0.003475, "from_low_reference": 0.280323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.8927, "fair_value_reference": 9.965888, "structural_low": 9.564, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.007603, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025296, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002914, "worst_return": -0.01812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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10.93908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.846, "volume": 2626, "typical_volume": 4086.7, "trend": 10.7217, "fair_value": 9.883718, "relative_strength": 10.204303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.609414, "energy": 66.827703, "activity_lines": [ 11.691067, 11.661236, 11.301895, 11.014983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.684, "volume": 4965, "typical_volume": 4165.55, "trend": 10.7663, "fair_value": 9.904651, "relative_strength": 9.292036, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.605073, "energy": 60.362691, "activity_lines": [ 11.7048, 11.672218, 11.374524, 11.077067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.632, "volume": 2573, "typical_volume": 3937.4, "trend": 10.806033, "fair_value": 9.924506, "relative_strength": 7.267747, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.297566, "energy": 59.177117, "activity_lines": [ 11.686933, 11.666945, 11.434343, 11.132918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.488, "volume": 5971, "typical_volume": 4032.5, "trend": 10.843167, "fair_value": 9.942273, "relative_strength": 3.514489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.671061, "energy": 45.226903, "activity_lines": [ 11.627467, 11.635018, 11.473695, 11.176916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.044, "volume": 10916, "typical_volume": 4518.65, "trend": 10.8927, "fair_value": 9.965888, "relative_strength": 5.379173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.785524, "energy": 57.524597, "activity_lines": [ 11.752133, 11.707673, 11.559581, 11.254389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }