{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32a33bda-f760-4637-9b15-9b100e20b3bc", "symbol": "ARLP", "name": "Alliance Resource Partners LP", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.636, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.968, "architecture_energy": 17.279, "architecture_maturity": 33.422, "architecture_confidence": 67.203, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.68, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 19.69, "deceleration": 41.6, "rotation_down": 27.44, "downward_expansion": 56.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.551015, 24.312055, 24.538945, 24.854502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.62, "trend_reference": 24.955725, "distance_from_trend": -0.013453, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.294253, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.15618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.156205, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034651, "excess_performance": -0.152803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.15618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.051269, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3113547, "relative_activity": 1.852184, "balance": 1.051269, "dry_up": 1.001487, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051006, "annualized_volatility": 0.251063, "from_high_reference": -0.143822, "from_low_reference": 0.192361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.955725, "fair_value_reference": 21.294253, "structural_low": 22.862823, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035695, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.002365, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.100615, "worst_return": -0.006148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.086264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157578, "worst_return": 0.041365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.123171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258303, "worst_return": -0.011962, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.101332, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"activity_lines": [ 23.829019, 24.272802, 24.814873, 24.934425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.839033, "volume": 1022436, "typical_volume": 1674130.7, "trend": 24.746992, "fair_value": 21.093194, "relative_strength": -10.620921, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.506961, "energy": 46.74323, "activity_lines": [ 23.771113, 24.145467, 24.672007, 24.879363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.122133, "volume": 967768, "typical_volume": 1618630.35, "trend": 24.804259, "fair_value": 21.160096, "relative_strength": -7.638, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.993539, "energy": 40.557694, "activity_lines": [ 23.88697, 24.087986, 24.565753, 24.83905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.332633, "volume": 1630303, "typical_volume": 1614398.15, "trend": 24.908864, "fair_value": 21.230361, "relative_strength": -3.193156, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.511405, "energy": 16.170663, "activity_lines": [ 24.366186, 24.26892, 24.583178, 24.873138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.62, "volume": 3113547, "typical_volume": 1681013.75, "trend": 24.955725, "fair_value": 21.294253, "relative_strength": -10.156205, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.967813, "energy": 17.279275, "activity_lines": [ 24.551015, 24.312055, 24.538945, 24.854502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }