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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.469, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.558, "architecture_energy": 89.09, "architecture_maturity": 8.84, "architecture_confidence": 69.583, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 81.28, "upward_expansion": 96.24, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 9.85, "downward_expansion": 20.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.166667, 83.605454, 82.765259, 82.344183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 85.0, "trend_reference": 82.086136, "distance_from_trend": 0.035498, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.754448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039699, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.020919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017964, "excess_performance": -0.035347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035498, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039699, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040209, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017964, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.89011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53, "relative_activity": 0.709505, "balance": 3.89011, "dry_up": 0.411647, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010846, "annualized_volatility": 0.090073, "from_high_reference": -0.022989, "from_low_reference": 0.075423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.086136, "fair_value_reference": 81.754448, "structural_low": 79.038634, 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53.175937, "activity_lines": [ 83.172423, 82.171858, 81.582347, 81.686309 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 82.0, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 169.25, "trend": 81.919469, "fair_value": 81.917084, "relative_strength": -4.4202, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.717642, "energy": 51.111468, "activity_lines": [ 82.898105, 82.288346, 81.629566, 81.686128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 82.5, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 163.15, "trend": 81.852802, "fair_value": 81.880117, "relative_strength": -5.082171, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.018481, "energy": 32.315665, "activity_lines": [ 82.72, 82.450557, 81.731546, 81.723582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 83.0, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 138.75, "trend": 81.852802, "fair_value": 81.849272, "relative_strength": -2.486698, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.426871, "energy": 27.589102, "activity_lines": [ 82.7, 82.6494, 81.878765, 81.797594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 83.0, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 82.7, "trend": 81.852802, "fair_value": 81.81551, "relative_strength": -2.399322, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.604981, "energy": 33.792699, "activity_lines": [ 82.733333, 82.784876, 82.021222, 81.871607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.5, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 80.2, "trend": 81.869469, "fair_value": 81.78787, "relative_strength": -2.136474, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.361353, "energy": 55.235117, "activity_lines": [ 83.033333, 82.965206, 82.201774, 81.977878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 84.5, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 77.6, "trend": 81.952802, "fair_value": 81.769557, "relative_strength": -2.390549, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.783367, "energy": 77.652438, "activity_lines": [ 83.6, 83.272211, 82.46804, 82.14759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.0, "volume": 53, "typical_volume": 74.7, "trend": 82.086136, "fair_value": 81.754448, "relative_strength": -4.020919, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.558131, "energy": 89.090104, "activity_lines": [ 84.166667, 83.605454, 82.765259, 82.344183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }