{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32a892da-830a-4034-9e2e-17e692d4210e", "symbol": "AVEN", "name": "Avensia AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.596, "architecture_energy": 75.927, "architecture_maturity": 15.783, "architecture_confidence": 84.149, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.83, "rotation_up": 8.59, "upward_expansion": 17.0, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 77.59, "downward_expansion": 92.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.333333, 6.607078, 6.928027, 7.022196 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.32, "trend_reference": 7.200585, "distance_from_trend": -0.122294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.457552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.252739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.743261, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19797, "excess_performance": -0.259464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.252739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116594, "relative_activity": 0.587038, "balance": 0.225102, "dry_up": 0.961912, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082505, "annualized_volatility": 0.312792, "from_high_reference": -0.392308, "from_low_reference": 0.089655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.200585, "fair_value_reference": 8.457552, "structural_low": 5.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.020377, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.001637, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.226087, "worst_return": -0.141379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.030039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088101, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.218829, "worst_return": -0.164948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.106934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.091784, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.679755, "worst_return": -0.280969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.047001, 7.170278, 7.227342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.2, "volume": 208850, "typical_volume": 202206.35, "trend": 7.356585, "fair_value": 8.49128, "relative_strength": -31.537966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.864222, "energy": 72.729591, "activity_lines": [ 6.552, 6.857138, 7.077051, 7.147992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.36, "volume": 76614, "typical_volume": 196036.95, "trend": 7.273252, "fair_value": 8.474055, "relative_strength": -29.884714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.252893, "energy": 72.622533, "activity_lines": [ 6.426667, 6.722693, 7.002872, 7.083696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.32, "volume": 116594, "typical_volume": 198614.15, "trend": 7.200585, "fair_value": 8.457552, "relative_strength": -30.743261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.595875, "energy": 75.926811, "activity_lines": [ 6.333333, 6.607078, 6.928027, 7.022196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }