{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32b695ec-6399-4a2b-a7a8-1ba65bc05cda", "symbol": "MKC", "name": "McCormick & Company, Incorporated", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.349, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.301, "architecture_energy": 15.243, "architecture_maturity": 19.646, "architecture_confidence": 51.698, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.31, "rotation_up": 41.75, "upward_expansion": 38.9, "deceleration": 39.91, "rotation_down": 15.51, "downward_expansion": 42.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.192, 44.807599, 43.606105, 44.659424 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.77, "trend_reference": 47.007938, "distance_from_trend": -0.026335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.087336, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238275, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.085006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.196285, "excess_performance": -0.370532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103257, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098116, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196285, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.704918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.704918, "dry_up": 0.846887, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046429, "annualized_volatility": 0.338824, "from_high_reference": -0.240958, "from_low_reference": 0.188831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.007938, "fair_value_reference": 60.087336, "structural_low": 38.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008308, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.058586, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.069072, "worst_return": -0.203098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.056545, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.118339, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.056951, "worst_return": -0.202278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172628, "worst_return": -0.227232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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48.628474, "fair_value": 60.820566, "relative_strength": -29.266106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.726101, "energy": 29.525515, "activity_lines": [ 44.693269, 43.087702, 43.141909, 45.399732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.84, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 90.2, "trend": 48.243057, "fair_value": 60.648384, "relative_strength": -27.336791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.298178, "energy": 28.945449, "activity_lines": [ 45.375482, 43.766267, 43.245559, 45.21983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.700001, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 90.25, "trend": 47.822256, "fair_value": 60.449788, "relative_strength": -29.329545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.801064, "energy": 26.73488, "activity_lines": [ 45.417877, 44.155014, 43.301732, 44.991246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.310001, "volume": 121, "typical_volume": 95.15, "trend": 47.400987, "fair_value": 60.260797, "relative_strength": -29.067932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.78994, "energy": 18.583922, "activity_lines": [ 45.062, 44.378852, 43.369474, 44.764649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.77, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 89.15, "trend": 47.007938, "fair_value": 60.087336, "relative_strength": -28.085006, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.301025, "energy": 15.243216, "activity_lines": [ 45.192, 44.807599, 43.606105, 44.659424 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }