{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "32baa746-7788-4bcd-9817-045597e6331a",
    "symbol": "COMO",
    "name": "Amundi Bloomberg Equal-weight Commodity ex-Agriculture UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 88.794,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 31.29,
    "architecture_energy": 26.396,
    "architecture_maturity": 45.228,
    "architecture_confidence": 69.233,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.1,
        "rotation_up": 53.44,
        "upward_expansion": 60.64,
        "deceleration": 68.02,
        "rotation_down": 13.79,
        "downward_expansion": 17.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        35.017001,
        34.609219,
        35.104386,
        34.877041
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 35.185001,
    "trend_reference": 34.0579,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.033094,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.240892,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393968,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 8.512511,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.198971,
    "excess_performance": 0.14566,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033094,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084337,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.393968,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.123763,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085125,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.236896,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.198971,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.546427,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 64158,
      "relative_activity": 0.988818,
      "balance": 1.546427,
      "dry_up": 0.936813,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031049,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.215677,
      "from_high_reference": -0.085153,
      "from_low_reference": 0.565796
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.0579,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.240892,
      "structural_low": 28.325001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.008521,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002848,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.086476,
        "worst_return": -0.104002,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.017874,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035238,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.35948,
        "worst_return": -0.051394,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.010886,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005696,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.554647,
        "worst_return": -0.099776,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.295858,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.340774,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.413297,
        "worst_return": 0.063473,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.022852,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.035066,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.100764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.06319,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025321,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034896,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004438,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "return": -0.025496,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.064623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.029944,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-12",
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        "return": 0.427577,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.021484,
        "active": true
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    ],
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 37.037998,
        "volume": 61962,
        "typical_volume": 115119.1,
        "trend": 29.830903,
        "fair_value": 23.984186,
        "relative_strength": 35.158487,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 63.70264,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.950999,
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          33.581571,
          31.962953
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 36.550999,
        "volume": 118788,
        "typical_volume": 116187.4,
        "trend": 30.22637,
        "fair_value": 24.082654,
        "relative_strength": 32.202107,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 37.547001,
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        "typical_volume": 117320.1,
        "trend": 30.654803,
        "fair_value": 24.184815,
        "relative_strength": 37.088397,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 71.538108,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.798399,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 119178.6,
        "trend": 31.046733,
        "fair_value": 24.287308,
        "relative_strength": 31.946128,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 67.563423,
        "energy": 69.573077,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 36.384998,
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        "typical_volume": 117420.45,
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        "relative_strength": 26.745959,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.892793,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 112416.2,
        "trend": 31.762966,
        "fair_value": 24.481847,
        "relative_strength": 24.595204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 35.056999,
        "volume": 8703,
        "typical_volume": 108698.05,
        "trend": 32.0705,
        "fair_value": 24.569263,
        "relative_strength": 17.938545,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 100240.8,
        "trend": 32.368133,
        "fair_value": 24.657629,
        "relative_strength": 14.324972,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 11808,
        "typical_volume": 92554.2,
        "trend": 32.593733,
        "fair_value": 24.737404,
        "relative_strength": 10.035142,
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        "direction": 5.274636,
        "energy": 20.354169,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.512467,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 33.380001,
        "volume": 18723,
        "typical_volume": 88809.5,
        "trend": 32.812533,
        "fair_value": 24.817981,
        "relative_strength": 8.530794,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 29.291919,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.953467,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 33.580002,
        "volume": 93657,
        "typical_volume": 89646.9,
        "trend": 33.0695,
        "fair_value": 24.899001,
        "relative_strength": 10.791972,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -5.781824,
        "energy": 32.580106,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.661468,
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          34.465944
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 34.360001,
        "volume": 54317,
        "typical_volume": 87642.4,
        "trend": 33.328667,
        "fair_value": 24.983103,
        "relative_strength": 12.721852,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -3.850569,
        "energy": 31.353082,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.805001,
          34.420401,
          35.105167,
          34.549202
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 35.630001,
        "volume": 64625,
        "typical_volume": 77540.95,
        "trend": 33.591733,
        "fair_value": 25.071167,
        "relative_strength": 15.638708,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.549408,
        "energy": 17.690137,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.418335,
          34.509837,
          35.143767,
          34.697675
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.035,
        "volume": 60035,
        "typical_volume": 69865.65,
        "trend": 33.8481,
        "fair_value": 25.155635,
        "relative_strength": 11.26648,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.181718,
        "energy": 15.717434,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.754334,
          34.525946,
          35.116748,
          34.790789
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 35.185001,
        "volume": 64158,
        "typical_volume": 64883.55,
        "trend": 34.0579,
        "fair_value": 25.240892,
        "relative_strength": 8.512511,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.289923,
        "energy": 26.395891,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.017001,
          34.609219,
          35.104386,
          34.877041
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}