{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32bb00cd-073d-4747-aa46-f8e099288ba5", "symbol": "AP4", "name": "Riverstone Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.451, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.535, "architecture_energy": 14.723, "architecture_maturity": 47.948, "architecture_confidence": 77.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.26, "rotation_up": 21.99, "upward_expansion": 51.36, "deceleration": 92.95, "rotation_down": 25.43, "downward_expansion": 17.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.839667, 0.843364, 0.842607, 0.818422 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.83, "trend_reference": 0.796324, "distance_from_trend": 0.042289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.739441, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122469, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.253406, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.151984, "excess_performance": -0.002851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042289, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010285, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112534, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.945363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11635500, "relative_activity": 0.743079, "balance": 1.945363, "dry_up": 0.73186, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069509, "annualized_volatility": 0.368759, "from_high_reference": -0.15736, "from_low_reference": 0.304767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.796324, "fair_value_reference": 0.739441, "structural_low": 0.650343, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.020146, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.084147, "worst_return": -0.225843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011362, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074513, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231589, "worst_return": -0.489567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019808, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.409569, "worst_return": -0.308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241378, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112342, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 0.735088, "relative_strength": -8.587851, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.976901, "energy": 22.387396, "activity_lines": [ 0.847667, 0.853364, 0.837381, 0.81353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.84, "volume": 10410200, "typical_volume": 15880596.1, "trend": 0.796677, "fair_value": 0.737309, "relative_strength": -9.150415, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.838944, "energy": 19.458511, "activity_lines": [ 0.845667, 0.848364, 0.840736, 0.816272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.83, "volume": 11635500, "typical_volume": 15658490.0, "trend": 0.796324, "fair_value": 0.739441, "relative_strength": -11.253406, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.535245, "energy": 14.723132, "activity_lines": [ 0.839667, 0.843364, 0.842607, 0.818422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }