{ "ticker": { "uuid": "32c498d3-d594-46f0-8c09-521c3f00c6f6", "symbol": "000762", "name": "Xizang Mineral Development Co. LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.158, "architecture_energy": 80.606, "architecture_maturity": 18.453, "architecture_confidence": 90.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 10.62, "upward_expansion": 19.84, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 72.93, "downward_expansion": 93.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.479333, 23.91, 27.273666, 28.44258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.93, "trend_reference": 29.206333, "distance_from_trend": -0.180657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.734416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.888492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113375, "excess_performance": -0.120775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.549203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357799, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79976303, "relative_activity": 0.597718, "balance": 0.42957, "dry_up": 0.669299, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131441, "annualized_volatility": 0.626346, "from_high_reference": -0.422399, "from_low_reference": 0.239254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.206333, "fair_value_reference": 23.734416, "structural_low": 19.309999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.006488, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.01616, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.434293, "worst_return": -0.233949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.112024, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.003685, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.565282, "worst_return": -0.218097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038644, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059108, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.299432, "worst_return": -0.280465, "sufficient": true }, { 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28.016909, 30.481047, 30.380473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.73, "volume": 87620452, "typical_volume": 137987726.2, "trend": 29.630333, "fair_value": 23.86275, "relative_strength": -23.851145, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.991085, "energy": 75.387673, "activity_lines": [ 24.084, 26.373636, 29.490476, 29.797161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.209999, "volume": 111220564, "typical_volume": 136890980.2, "trend": 29.461333, "fair_value": 23.814517, "relative_strength": -22.193571, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.75135, "energy": 86.25686, "activity_lines": [ 22.645333, 25.121272, 28.596619, 29.253914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.24, "volume": 79398986, "typical_volume": 135269756.4, "trend": 29.284333, "fair_value": 23.769019, "relative_strength": -16.870973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.200676, "energy": 84.498048, "activity_lines": [ 22.144666, 24.274363, 27.837238, 28.788021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.93, "volume": 79976303, "typical_volume": 133802755.5, "trend": 29.206333, "fair_value": 23.734416, "relative_strength": -14.888492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.157804, "energy": 80.606156, "activity_lines": [ 22.479333, 23.91, 27.273666, 28.44258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }